Who will be the next Supreme Court justice?

The Supreme Court currently has no vacancy, meaning James Ho cannot become a justice without a retirement, death, or removal of an existing justice before January 20, 2029. Even if a vacancy occurs, Ho must be formally nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the Senate, a process that has never happened for him despite his inclusion on Trump’s 2020 shortlist and continued identification as a potential nominee for Trump’s second term. The market’s 20% probability for Ho appears to overstate his likelihood relative to the actual hurdles: the uncertainty of a vacancy, the intense competition from other top contenders, and specific concerns about his temperament that may deter Trump from nominating him.

Among the top contenders, Andrew Oldham (15% market) and Aileen Cannon (12% market) present stronger profiles for Trump’s next pick. Oldham, also on the Fifth Circuit, has long been viewed as a more conventional and less controversial conservative judge, while Cannon’s recent prominence in high-stakes political cases has elevated her visibility despite potential confirmation risks. Ho’s 'brash' style and past comments, such as the 'woke Constitution' phrase, raise doubts about his suitability even among conservatives. D. John Sauer (10%) and Amul Thapar (9%) are also credible but less likely than Ho, Oldham, or Cannon to be the immediate choice.

The market’s pricing suggests Ho is the frontrunner, but this likely misprices the event by underweighting the vacancy uncertainty and overweighting Ho’s name recognition. A more realistic assessment accounts for the low probability of a vacancy occurring before 2029, the competitive field, and Ho’s specific vulnerabilities. The independent probability for Ho is therefore lower than the market’s 20%, reflecting a more cautious view of his chances relative to the other contenders and the structural barriers to any appointment.