Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve was established by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, a federal statute that a president cannot repeal by executive order; abolition requires Congress to pass and enact a new law repealing the Act, which has not been proposed or advanced in recent sessions. Recent legislative efforts like H.R. 1846 (Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act) exist but have not gained meaningful support or progressed toward enactment, confirming the political impossibility of abolition under current conditions.

Trump’s demonstrated approach is to influence Fed policy, not eliminate the institution. He appointed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in May 2026, replacing Jerome Powell, and Warsh has explicitly pledged to defend the Fed’s independence even against Trump’s pressure. Warsh’s testimony on July 15, 2026, affirmed that the Fed is an independent central bank and that he would continue his job regardless of Trump’s public demands.

The market price of 5.9% for 'Yes' slightly overstates the probability of abolition, likely reflecting noise from Trump’s rhetorical attacks on the Fed rather than substantive legislative or executive action. The legal barrier is absolute without congressional repeal, and no such repeal is on the horizon, making the event effectively impossible. The independent assessment is 2%, reflecting near-zero probability with a small margin for unforeseen political shocks.