How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?

As of early June 2026, President Trump has signed 263 executive orders in his second term, surpassing his entire first-term total of 220. To land in the 400–449 range by January 2029, he would need to sign between 137 and 186 additional orders over the remaining 31 months of his term, averaging roughly 4.4 to 6.0 orders per month. This required pace is significantly lower than his current average of approximately 18.7 orders per month through February 2026, yet the recent trend shows a sharp deceleration, with February 2026 marking his third-lowest monthly total at just 8 orders.

The market currently prices the 400–449 outcome at 17%, which appears slightly inflated given the trajectory. While the initial surge of 36 orders in the first week was unprecedented, the sustained slowdown suggests the total will likely exceed 450 if the average remains above 6 orders per month, or fall below 400 if the slowdown continues to single digits. Historical data shows Trump is already the tenth-most prolific EO issuer in U.S. history with 475 total across both terms, and models predict a second-term total well above 800, though prediction markets suggest a more conservative 400–500 range.

The most probable outcome is that Trump will exceed 450 orders, making the 400–449 bracket a narrow miss. The 450–499 range (market 10%) and 500–549 range (market 9%) appear more aligned with the current volume, while the 350–399 range (market 13%) is unlikely given the 263 already signed. The market may be underestimating the likelihood of a total above 500, or overestimating the chance of a slowdown that would cap the total below 450.