Which company has the best Math AI model end of July?
Google looks slightly favored because it is currently first on the Math leaderboard, but the lead is thin and Anthropic remains very close behind. I would price Google at a modest edge rather than a lock.
Analysis
Google is starting from a better place than the market price implies: the July 9 Math leaderboard snapshot has gemini-3.5-flash-high in first with 1521±25, ahead of claude-opus-4-6-thinking at 1517±11 and claude-fable-5 at 1516±38. That is only a 4-point edge, and the overlapping uncertainty around the top three means the lead is real but fragile rather than decisive.
Google’s recent public posture is still supportive of a strong finish. Its Gemini 3.5 family is the newest major push, and Google’s official model pages still describe Gemini 3.5 Pro as coming soon, which leaves open the possibility of an additional lift before month-end instead of a static lineup. That matters because this market resolves to the company, not the specific model name, so any new Google model that inherits the top spot would reinforce a Yes outcome.
The main counterargument is that the rest of the frontier field is also moving fast. Anthropic launched Claude Sonnet 5 on June 30 and restored Fable 5 on July 1, while OpenAI launched GPT-5.6 on July 9 and said Sol is its new flagship with stronger science performance. Those launches can change vote patterns and introduce new top-end competition even if they have not yet displaced Google on the current Math page, where OpenAI’s strongest math entries are still well below the top slot.
Arguments
For
- Google already occupies first place on the current Math leaderboard snapshot, giving it a live lead to defend.
- Google’s Gemini 3.5 roadmap still has room for another upside surprise if Gemini 3.5 Pro arrives and performs well before July 31.
Against
- The current lead is only a few Elo points, so a small vote swing could flip the ranking.
- Anthropic and OpenAI both shipped new frontier models in the last two weeks, which raises the chance of a late-month leaderboard reshuffle.
Key drivers
- Whether Google’s current first-place snapshot keeps attracting enough votes to hold the lead through month-end.
- The timing and quality of any Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout before July 31.
- How much Anthropic’s new Sonnet 5 and revived Fable 5 shift attention toward Anthropic’s top math models.
- Whether GPT-5.6 starts appearing on the leaderboard with enough strength to challenge the top cluster.
Risk factors
- Leaderboard rank can move on modest score changes because the top cluster is tightly packed.
- A fresh release or surge in voting from Anthropic or OpenAI could erase Google’s small edge before July 31.
- Google’s current advantage is not statistically decisive, so mean reversion is a meaningful risk.
Scenarios
Best case
Google holds the top slot all month, and either the current Gemini 3.5 Flash-high stays ahead or a late Gemini 3.5 Pro rollout widens the gap enough to make the finish comfortable.
Most likely
Google stays near the top and finishes first by a narrow margin, but the result remains vulnerable to a late leaderboard swing.
Worst case
Anthropic’s Fable 5 or Opus 4-6-thinking overtakes Google after additional votes, or a new OpenAI entrant starts climbing fast enough to force Google out of first.
More from this day
- PoliticsKalshi3mo
Will a cabinet member be impeached?
AI97%MKT5%Edge+92Hidden Gem**Very likely Yes.** A sitting Cabinet member (Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte) is already being tried in the Senate impeachment court, which in the Philippines follows a House impeachment — so the factual threshold for “impeached” has effectively been met and the probability of at least one Cabinet member being impeached before 2027 is extremely high.
- pop culturePolymarketEnded
"Evil Dead Burn" Opening Weekend Box Office (Lower Brackets)
AI8%MKT93%Edge-85HypedI think the chance that Evil Dead Burn opens below $16M is quite low, roughly 8%. The latest tracking and franchise comparisons point much closer to the mid-20Ms than the teens.
- techPolymarketEnded
Best AI model on July 18?
AI13%MKT92%Edge-79HypedI think claude-opus-4-6-thinking is a clear underdog here. It is currently near the top of the leaderboard, but it is not the leader today, and the latest frontier releases make it more likely to stay around second or third than to reclaim first.