Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

The latest traffic readings still look far below what this market needs. A PortWatch-based live monitor puts Strait of Hormuz ship arrivals at about 32 per day on a 7-day average, roughly 44% of the pre-crisis level, while Reuters-linked vessel tracking reports traffic in the 25 to 40 ship range over the last week and 48 ships on July 8 versus 47 on July 7. That is still a wide gap from the 60-call threshold, and because the market resolves on a 7-day moving average, it would require a sustained step-up rather than a brief rebound.

The recent news flow is still adverse for a near-term normalization. In the past few days there have been renewed attacks on tankers, at least four oil and gas tankers turned back from attempting to transit, and maritime authorities have urged caution or even suspension of Hormuz transits unless safety can be assured. Reuters also reported that traffic slowed again on Friday after the latest round of hostilities, which suggests the security shock has not yet fully passed through the shipping system.

There are some reasons not to write off a recovery entirely. The U.S. and Iran are still holding technical and mediated talks focused on shipping flows, and Reuters said no fresh attacks were reported on Friday, so there is still at least a diplomatic off-ramp. But the key point is timing: even if talks improve in the next week or two, the strait would need a fairly rapid and durable normalization to lift a 7-day average from the low 30s into the 60s by August 31. That is possible, but it is the less likely path given the current security environment and the inertia in shipping and insurance decisions.