Next French Presidential Election

The biggest new development in the last week is that Le Pen’s immediate legal obstacle has narrowed rather than widened. On July 7, the Paris appeals court upheld her embezzlement conviction but shortened the ineligibility period enough that she says she can run in 2027, and Reuters reported that she has already launched her campaign and is appealing to France’s highest court, which can suspend the ruling while it is reviewed. That means the market is no longer pricing a simple disqualification story; the main question is now whether she can translate legal survival into an actual victory.

The polling backdrop remains unusually favorable for her. A Reuters summary of new polls on July 9 said Le Pen could well win the 2027 presidential election despite the guilty verdict, and a 90-day vote aggregate updated on July 10 still put her at 35.8% in the first round, narrowly ahead of Jordan Bardella at 34.2% and well ahead of the main non-RN contenders. That suggests the far right is not just competitive; it remains the dominant force in the opening round, which is the necessary first step toward any Le Pen victory.

Even so, the path from first-round strength to an actual presidency is still narrow. Le Pen has now lost three presidential bids, and French runoff politics historically compress the far right’s ceiling because anti-RN voters often coalesce around the leading mainstream challenger. The fact that Bardella remains a credible substitute candidate also matters: if legal or political conditions shift, the RN could pivot away from Le Pen, which would make this specific market outcome less likely even if the party stays strong. The latest court ruling improves her odds meaningfully, but it does not remove the core strategic problem that she must survive both legal uncertainty and a second-round headwind.