Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

Samuel Alito is 76 in 2026 and therefore in an age range where retirement is plausible, but age alone is a weak predictor of imminent departure for Supreme Court justices. Historically, many justices serve into their late 70s and 80s unless there is a clear health issue, family reason, or strong political calculation. There is *no public indication* from Alito — no announcement, no credible reporting, and active participation in court activity — that he plans to step down during Trump's term. The recently retracted NPR story and apology are strong evidence that no reliable leak or internal process was underway at that time.

Political incentives are mixed. On one hand, a conservative justice might time retirement to secure a conservative successor while a Republican president controls the White House; on the other hand, Alito is a reliably conservative vote and may have little incentive to vacate a seat that is ideologically aligned and secure under Trump. The presence of a book coming out in fall 2026 and ongoing case activity both point toward continued engagement rather than an exit in the immediate term. Absent health problems, scandal, or an explicit private deal to resign, the baseline rate of retirement for a justice in Alito's specific circumstances (conservative, active, no public signal) is on the lower side.

Balancing these factors, I estimate an independent probability of about **27%** that Alito resigns sometime before 2029-01-20. This reflects a non-negligible tail risk from sudden health issues, private negotiations, or a late-term strategic decision to time retirement during a Republican presidency, but it gives primary weight to the lack of credible signals and his continued Court activity.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to current market prices):**

Current market price: Yes 0.63 / No 0.37. The market is pricing a high probability of resignation. There are plausible explanations for why the market has moved this far above my independent estimate:

- *Overreaction to noisy signals:* The widely circulated (but false) NPR report likely triggered traders to re-evaluate and push prices higher; in fast-moving markets, retractions often lag full unwinding of sentiment. - *Speculative / momentum trading:* Participants sometimes pile into a direction after intense social-media and news attention; with heavy volume, momentum can sustain prices above fundamentals. - *Asymmetric payoff and hedging demand:* Some traders or institutions may be willing to pay a premium for a Yes position as a hedge against an unexpected health event or because they value a potential early retirement more than the market-implied odds suggest. - *Possible private information (low probability):* The market could reflect a small subset of traders acting on non-public signals. I assign low probability to that explanation given the high-profile nature of any true impending retirement and absence of corroboration from major outlets.

Given the above, the market appears *significantly* overpricing the probability of Alito resigning in this term relative to the public-information baseline. That overpricing could persist if momentum traders and hedgers continue to dominate flow, but from a fundamentals standpoint the price is not justified by available public evidence.

My recommendation for traders who accept the public-evidence model: consider that the market is offering a rich premium on a Yes bet that, in my view, is mispriced unless private information exists. Conversely, if you believe non-public signals exist or you place higher weight on age/late-term political incentives than I do, the market might be nearer fair value for you.