Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**

- The House appears highly likely to vote to impeach given the reporting that a historic floor vote is expected today (June 28, 2026). Political dynamics in the House, party discipline among Democrats, and the very fact of a formal inquiry and floor debate make impeachment by the House a strong probability (I estimate P(House impeaches) ≈ 80–90%).

- Removal, however, requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate (67 votes). That threshold is extremely high and historically has only been met when a president was overwhelmingly repudiated by his own party or when the underlying facts were indisputable and cross-party outrage was intense (Nixon resigned before a near-certain conviction; Johnson and Clinton were acquitted). Modern polarization makes a bipartisan 67-vote coalition improbable.

- Assessing P(Senate convicts | House impeaches) requires judging several factors: Senate partisan composition and loyalty, the strength and clarity of the evidence exposed during the House process, public opinion pressure, and the risk tolerance of vulnerable Republican senators. Under most plausible scenarios (no sudden, incontrovertible new evidence showing criminality that galvanizes GOP defections), conviction is unlikely. I estimate P(conviction | impeachment) in the 12–18% range, centered near ~15% in a baseline scenario where damaging but not explosive evidence is public. Multiplying (≈85% * 15%) gives an unconditional probability near 12–13%.

- Additional considerations that push the probability slightly up or down: large, sustained public demonstrations and overwhelming new evidence could move GOP senators; conversely, party cohesion, threat of political retaliation, and the president's control of party messaging lower the odds.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (look at current market prices):**

- Current market price: Yes = 18%. My independent assessment (12%) is meaningfully lower than the market price. The gap is not enormous but large enough to warrant explanation.

- Why the market might be higher than my independent estimate: - **Confusion / conflation risk:** Some traders may be buying 'Yes' believing the question is just 'Will he be impeached?' (which is far more likely) rather than 'impeached and removed.' That would inflate Yes-side demand. - **Event risk premium:** Markets often overweight low-probability, high-impact news risk (a surprise revelation or criminal referral) — traders buying insurance on a removal scenario can bid the price up quickly. - **Short-term momentum and sentiment trading:** The immediacy of the House vote and intense media coverage can produce hot-money flows that overshoot rational probabilities. - **Information asymmetry:** Some market participants may have access to leaked information or optimistic signals from inside Senate negotiations and will trade accordingly; even if such signals are weak, they can push the price higher. - **Betting on rare scenarios:** Highly motivated contrarian bettors who believe a cascade of GOP defections is plausible might overweight that tail.

- Conclusion on calibration: The market price (18%) is a defensible short-term market-implied probability given noise and overweighting of tail risk, but I think it modestly overstates the true chance because it does not sufficiently discount the 67-vote barrier and modern partisan dynamics. That said, the market is not wildly mispriced — it reflects legitimate tail-risk concern and the possibility of dramatic revelations. I would view the market as slightly optimistic relative to my estimate and would consider value on the No side at current price or look to buy Yes only if new, high-quality evidence increases the conviction probability substantially.