Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Putin remains institutionally entrenched: constitutional amendments, control of the security services, a subordinated legislature and judiciary, tight media control, and extensive patronage networks all favor continuity through the end of 2026. The market-implied probability (Yes 10.5%) reflects heavy risk aversion toward any removal scenario, and that price is consistent with a baseline view that an abrupt, political removal is unlikely absent extraordinary shocks.

However, the ongoing war in Ukraine, sustained military setbacks, and the economic and human costs of prolonged conflict create persistent stress on the regime and its elite coalition, increasing the chance of elite accommodation, defections, or an engineered exit if insiders judge Putin’s continued rule threatens the survival of their assets or the state apparatus. In autocracies, elite-driven change often occurs in moments of perceived existential crisis for the ruling coalition, and because this market resolves on announced resignations or effective incapacitation, even a managed transition framed as a resignation or medical leave would count as a Yes, raising the effective probability above pure coup-or-kill scenarios.

Non-political tail risks—sudden mortality, assassination, or incapacitating health events—are low-probability but high-impact and cannot be ignored in the 18-month window; past rumors about Putin’s health have circulated for years with no confirmed outcomes, but random events remain a realistic pathway out of office. Conversely, organized removal via impeachment or mass popular protest looks unlikely absent a collapse in elite support or systematic breakdown of coercive institutions, because the security services and federal project benefit massively from regime continuity and have institutional incentives to block destabilizing turnovers.

Weighing these angles, I place central probability on Putin remaining President through 2026 but allocate a non-trivial 18% to scenarios that produce a formal or effective cessation of his presidency before year-end: a managed elite transition announced publicly, a sudden health event or assassination, or a decisive internal operation by security elites, with substantial uncertainty about timing and information opacity from official Russian sources making precise calibration difficult.