Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Independent (blind) analysis**

I decompose the event into two main sub-probabilities: (A) which party controls the U.S. House after the 2026 midterms and (B) conditional on control, whether the House will pass articles of impeachment before Jan 20, 2029. Historical patterns (midterms tend to cost the president's party) push toward a Democratic pick-up in 2026, but structural advantages for Republicans in many districts, incumbency advantages, and the uncertainty of the national environment mean that House control is far from certain. I estimate a roughly 60–65% chance Democrats win the House.

If Democrats control the House, the threshold to pass articles of impeachment is a simple majority. However, the decision to impeach is political, not legal: leadership will weigh electoral consequences, the public's appetite, and the strength and clarity of any new evidence or wrongdoing. Given Democrats' incentives to hold the president accountable and the existence of significant prior and ongoing legal and factual controversies around the president, I estimate that if Democrats have the House majority they will move to an impeachment vote with high probability (I place this conditional probability around 75–85%). That produces a substantial contribution to the overall probability.

If Republicans retain the House, impeachment remains possible but is much less likely: it would require substantial bipartisan defections or new, extreme revelations cutting across partisan protection. I place that conditional probability in the low single digits to low double digits depending on the severity of any novel revelations. Combining those branches yields my independent point estimate of **56%**.

Key qualitative drivers in the blind analysis include: the high salience of the president's ongoing legal exposures (which increase the *plausibility* and *political justification* for impeachment), the structural facts that a House majority vote suffices, and the historic precedent that Trump has been impeached twice already (making another House vote politically and procedurally easier). Offsetting those are deep partisan polarization, electoral risk calculations by Democrats (impeachment could be costly if public opinion is not strongly aligned), and the possibility that Democrats prioritize other oversight avenues or criminal processes outside Congress.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to market prices)**

Current crowd and exchange prices you provided cluster in the high 60s to low 70s (Polymarket ~68–69%, Kalshi ~72%, current market snapshot shown at 63%). My independent estimate (56%) is meaningfully below the high end of the market consensus but not drastically different from the 63% snapshot. Reasons the market may be priced higher than my assessment:

- *Poll and midterm optimism for Democrats:* Markets may be assigning a higher probability to a Democratic House than I do (markets appear to be implying >65% Dem House chances). If the market's implicit House control assumption is too aggressive, that inflates impeachment odds. - *Recency and legal-news overweighting:* Markets often put substantial weight on ongoing legal cases and dramatic headlines; traders may be extrapolating current legal momentum into a near-certain impeachment path. I model the link from legal trouble to impeachment as significant but not guaranteed. - *Risk premia and trader psychology:* Some traders are willing to buy high-probability political binary contracts as a hedge or narrative bet; others may be overconfident. That can push prices above a calibrated, decomposition-based forecast.

Where the market could be right: the crowd may be better at synthesizing state-level House race trends, private polling signals, and incentives of Democratic leaders who have clear motives to impeach if they gain control. If those signals are stronger than the public datasets I considered, the market-implied probabilities may be accurate.

Trading implication: with my estimate at 56% and the market Yes price at ~63% (snapshot), I view selling Yes / buying No as expected-value positive at current prices, conditional on my model and risk tolerance. That trade is only attractive if you accept my lower house-pickup or conditional-impeachment probabilities; if you believe Democrats are substantially more likely to win and will almost certainly impeach, the market price is reasonable.