Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
I assign Todd Blanche an 80% independent probability of being Donald Trump's next Attorney General, driven by a formal nomination, GOP committee-level acceptance, and alignment with Trump's recent staffing pattern; remaining probability is split among a small set of lower-momentum alternatives.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind Analysis (ignore market prices):**
- Recent, credible reporting (Bloomberg on June 15 and ABC) indicates that Trump has *nominated* Todd Blanche to be Attorney General and that at least one key Senate Judiciary Committee Republican (Thom Tillis) is "generally satisfied" and willing to meet with him. A formal nomination materially increases the baseline probability that a candidate becomes AG versus mere speculation about potential picks.
- Blanche is a former personal lawyer to Trump who has been operating within the Justice Department leadership circle. This fits a clear pattern from the administration of elevating private counsel and trusted insiders into senior DOJ roles — a pattern that reduces the chance of surprise substitutions and raises the probability that Blanche stays the nominee through confirmation.
- Confirmation dynamics: AG confirmation requires a simple majority in the Senate. The available signals (Tillis' cautious support and lack of a comparable, strongly-backed rival) point toward a pathway to confirmation, albeit with partisan opposition expected. Unless the Senate majority is razor-thin and a few GOP defections occur, an organized Republican majority should be able to confirm a Trump nominee like Blanche.
- Risks that lower the probability include: discovery during hearings of significant ethical or legal vulnerabilities tied to Blanche's prior role as personal counsel; strategic withdrawals by the White House if new political calculations demand a different face; or unexpected Senate defections (for policy or optics reasons). Those are non-trivial but not dominant given the current information.
- Balancing the nomination plus committee-level buy-in against the above risks, an 80% independent probability that Blanche will be Trump's next Attorney General by Jan 20, 2029, is warranted: the nomination is in place and the early signatories of support reduce the typical uncertainty attached to an unannounced or purely rumored candidate.
**Stage 2 — Market Calibration (compare to current market prices):**
- Current market price for Blanche sits at ~73%. My independent assessment of 80% is *modestly* higher than the market by about 7 percentage points. That gap is small in absolute terms but meaningful in a liquid market (event volume ~8.9M contracts) and suggests a slight market discount relative to the available reporting.
- Why the market might price Blanche at ~73% rather than ~80%: - Traders are likely discounting the chance of confirmation risk: hearings can reveal damaging information, or a few GOP senators could defect for ethical or political reasons. Markets often overweight low-probability, high-impact negative revelations. - Some participants may treat reports of a "nomination" as still vulnerable to last-minute withdrawal or replacement, especially in Trump's historically volatile personnel decisions. - Liquidity and risk management: heavy volume can compress margins and reflect aggregated views from many participants who value conservatism in confirmation probabilities.
- Why I consider the market a touch conservative (hence my higher probability): - The nomination is not speculative anymore — it has been reported as formal. Formal nominations considerably raise the hurdle for reversal. - At least one Judiciary Committee Republican has signaled general satisfaction; that committee-level acceptance is an early, concrete indicator of confirmation viability. - No competing candidate in the provided list currently shows comparable institutional or confirmation momentum.
- Conclusion on calibration: The market price is reasonable and reflects legitimate downside scenarios, but I view it as slightly underpricing Blanche's likelihood. A systematic trader comfortable with Senate arithmetic and political durability might consider that 7-point spread as an edge in favor of Blanche.
Arguments
For
- Blanche has been *formally nominated* per multiple major outlets — moving beyond rumor to an actionable nomination.
- Early GOP institutional buy-in (Tillis) lowers the prospect of immediate committee-level blockage.
- Fits Trump's staffing pattern of elevating trusted former personal lawyers into DOJ leadership roles, making substitution less likely.
- Blanche reportedly already operating in DOJ leadership circles, smoothing the transition and reducing confirmation friction.
- No other listed candidate has comparable confirmation-level momentum or formal nomination reporting.
Against
- As a former personal lawyer to Trump, Blanche is exposed to heightened ethical scrutiny that Democrats (and some Republicans) could exploit in hearings.
- Trump has historically changed personnel choices unexpectedly; a formal nomination is not a guaranteed endpoint.
- If the Senate majority is very slim, a few GOP defections could derail confirmation — this depends on the current, shifting Senate arithmetic.
- High public profile of the role invites intense media and opposition research; one damaging headline can shift market probabilities materially.
- Other political considerations (regional balance, future campaign optics) might make an alternative pick preferable to the White House late in the process.
Key drivers
- Formal nomination reported by major outlets (Bloomberg, ABC) — shifts from speculation to confirmed selection.
- Republican Judiciary Committee signal (Thom Tillis 'generally satisfied') reducing early barrier to hearings and procedural advancement.
- Trump's documented pattern of appointing former personal attorneys to senior DOJ roles — increases nominee stickiness.
- Senate majority and party discipline — a Republican-controlled/sufficiently cooperative Senate materially eases confirmation.
- Absence of an alternative nominee with comparable institutional momentum among the listed contenders.
Risk factors
- Damaging revelations or ethical concerns surfaced during confirmation hearings that cause GOP defections or a White House withdrawal.
- Narrow Senate majority or unexpected defections from swing GOP senators leading to failure on the floor.
- Strategic personnel changes from the White House — Trump has in the past changed nominees based on political calculations.
- Legal exposure of the nominee (past conduct as personal counsel) triggering formal investigations or public backlash.
- Unforeseen high-impact political events (e.g., major scandal, health incident) that shift priorities before confirmation.
Scenarios
Best case
Blanche proceeds through Judiciary Committee hearings with limited damaging revelations, secures sufficient Republican support (and no blocking procedural losses), and is confirmed by the Senate before Jan 20, 2029; transition is orderly and the administration publicizes continuity benefits.
Most likely
Blanche, as the formally nominated, institutionally-backed candidate, moves through hearings with partisan questioning and some Democratic opposition, but with sufficient GOP support to be confirmed. There may be concessions or negotiated committee procedures, but no fatal revelation forces withdrawal.
Worst case
Confirmation hearings reveal serious ethical or legal vulnerabilities tied to Blanche's prior role as Trump's personal counsel, triggering GOP defections or a White House withdrawal; an alternative candidate (e.g., Zeldin or DeSantis) is nominated and ultimately confirmed instead, or the seat remains vacant for an extended period.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 80% | 73% |
| Lee Zeldin | 6% | 7% |
| Ron DeSantis | 6% | 5% |
| Jeanine Pirro | 4% | 1% |
| Andrew Bailey | 4% | 1% |
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