Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a 43% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's Prime Minister after the next election, reflecting his entrenched base and coalition-building ability offset by legal jeopardy, coalition fragility, and potential centrist consolidation.
Analysis
Market-implied probability (Yes ~38.5%) signals sizable skepticism about Netanyahu's ability to be the next sworn-in Prime Minister, but it also implies meaningful chance; my independent assessment is slightly higher at 43% because structural advantages and past returns to power give Netanyahu upside relative to a pure polling snapshot. The current market volume indicates active trading and significant attention on this question, so prices partly reflect both political fundamentals and risk-oriented trading rather than pure forecasting consensus.
From a political-structural standpoint, Netanyahu benefits from incumbency of his political movement and an organizationally disciplined Likud that consistently places him as its leader and chief negotiator, which simplifies coalition negotiations in favorable circumstances; Israel's fragmented party system frequently rewards a well-positioned major party leader who can assemble a right-leaning bloc with religious and nationalist partners. Conversely, Israeli prime ministers do not win in a national runoff but by assembling a Knesset majority; Netanyahu's path depends on small-party math that can swing quickly with electoral thresholds, party splits, or pre-election mergers.
Legal and extrinsic factors materially reduce his baseline probability: ongoing corruption trials, potential convictions or new indictments, and associated political fallout can either disqualify or sap momentum; likewise, intense international pressure or diplomatic consequences could motivate local political realignments against him. Meanwhile, security events or spikes in external threats historically boost support for strong incumbents and can increase Netanyahu's odds by rallying voters, so near-term developments in Gaza, Lebanon, or other fronts represent acute binary drivers that could swing the race rapidly.
Finally, dynamics that markets and polls may undervalue include turnout variability among secular centrists and the Arab electorate, the potential for a surprise unity list that excludes Netanyahu, and intra-Likud succession talks if legal outcomes force his withdrawal — each could decisively change the probability landscape between now and October 27, 2026 (and through the resolution window ending December 31, 2027). Given these competing forces, my 43% estimate reflects a modestly higher-than-market view of Netanyahu's resilience while accounting for several substantial downside catalysts that leave a greater chance that he will not be sworn in.
Arguments
For
- Argument for Yes: Netanyahu has a resilient core electorate and a disciplined party infrastructure that improves his chances of leading a coalition.
- Argument for Yes: In a fragmented Knesset, a leader who can reliably assemble small religious and nationalist parties has an outsized advantage.
- Argument for Yes: Security crises historically produce short-term boosts for incumbents, which could bolster Netanyahu during the campaign.
- Argument for Yes: Experienced coalition bargaining and diplomatic ties give Netanyahu leverage with potential partners and external backers.
- Argument for Yes: If opposition parties fail to coordinate effectively, vote-splitting will favor Netanyahu's ability to claim a plurality and lead government formation.
Against
- Argument against Yes: Ongoing corruption trials create legal and political obstacles that could prevent Netanyahu from being an acceptable coalition leader.
- Argument against Yes: Opponents have incentives to form broad anti-Netanyahu alliances that could aggregate a majority without him.
- Argument against Yes: Internal fractures within the right or within Likud could reduce his seat share and destabilize his coalition prospects.
- Argument against Yes: High turnout among Arab and centrist voters or a successful mobilization campaign could swing the electoral math away from Netanyahu.
- Argument against Yes: International diplomatic pressure or conditional support for coalition partners might make some potential partners unwilling to join a Netanyahu-led government.
Key drivers
- Likud's organizational strength and Netanyahu's personal political machine that help secure votes and coalition deals.
- The arithmetic of small parties: the number of reliable religious and nationalist partners willing to join Netanyahu's coalition.
- Legal proceedings against Netanyahu and the timing or outcome of trials or appeals that could impair his eligibility or electability.
- Security events or escalations that could trigger a 'rally-around-the-leader' effect benefiting the incumbent right-wing candidate.
- Potential centrist or anti-Netanyahu alliances that could aggregate enough Knesset seats to form a majority excluding him.
- Voter turnout patterns among Arab and young secular voters, which can materially change seat distributions in a fragmented parliament.
Risk factors
- A conviction or major legal setback for Netanyahu before the election that undercuts his ability to lead a coalition.
- Formation of a broad anti-Netanyahu coalition or a surprise pre-election merger that consolidates centrists and left-wing blocs.
- A credible Likud leadership challenge or internal split that either replaces Netanyahu or fractures his vote.
- Low turnout in Netanyahu's base or unexpectedly high mobilization of his opponents that shifts seat allocations.
- Significant international pressure or sanctions that alter the calculations of potential coalition partners.
- An unforeseen security détente that removes the incumbent advantage and allows opposition narratives to dominate the campaign.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu overcomes legal distractions, a security escalation increases rally effects, Likud wins a plurality with reliable partners, and he successfully negotiates and is sworn in as Prime Minister after the October 2026 election.
Most likely
The election produces a fragmented Knesset with close seat totals, intense post-election bargaining, and outcome uncertainty where Netanyahu remains one of the leading candidates but ultimately fails or succeeds depending on small-party decisions and any legal developments, with a modest probability that he is sworn in (approximately 43%).
Worst case
Legal developments or a unified anti-Netanyahu coalition prevent him from securing coalition partners, an alternative leader assembles a majority, and Netanyahu is excluded from the premiership.
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