Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Without up-to-date polling or news feeds for June 2026, this assessment relies on structural political facts and recent historical patterns: Israel’s parliamentary system with proportional representation rewards disciplined, well-organized blocs, and Netanyahu’s Likud has repeatedly been able to convert a plurality of votes into the premiership by building coalitions with smaller right-wing and religious parties. Netanyahu has a deep, loyal base and an extensive personal political organization capable of mobilizing voters and negotiating post-election deals, which increases his baseline probability of returning to office compared with a less established leader.

Countervailing forces are meaningful. Netanyahu faces long-running legal exposure that has both mobilized opponents and complicated coalition-building by making some potential partners wary; his polarizing image also energizes a broad anti-Netanyahu constituency that can coalesce into electoral and post-election coalition dynamics. Additionally, long incumbencies invite voter fatigue and open opportunities for centrist or right-of-center alternatives to attract swing voters; the degree to which the opposition can present a united, coalition-ready alternative is a critical determinant.

Market sentiment (Yes ~31.5%) implies the crowd views Netanyahu as an underdog but still viable; my independent assessment is modestly higher because institutional features favor experienced kingmakers and because Israel’s political fragmentation often benefits a highly organized party leader. However, macro shocks — major security events, economic shifts, or internal splits in the right-wing bloc — could rapidly move probabilities in either direction between now and the election or during the post-election bargaining period.

Timing and resolution rules also matter: this market resolves to the individual sworn in as PM after the next election (and excludes caretaker incumbents), so scenarios where Netanyahu wins a plurality but fails to assemble a coalition or is blocked by legal incapacity reduce his chances more than raw vote shares would indicate; conversely, even a narrow plurality combined with deft bargaining could result in his being sworn in. Given these structural pluses and minuses, a mid-30s probability best balances Netanyahu’s staying power against substantive obstacles to him being sworn in by December 31, 2027.