Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a 42% chance Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next Prime Minister after the 2026 election, recognizing his strong organizational base and coalition-building skill but also substantial legal and coalition obstacles that make his path uncertain.
Analysis
Elections are scheduled for October 27, 2026, and the market currently prices Netanyahu at about 35% implied probability; liquidity in this market is high, indicating active trading and attention, but the price suggests traders regard his return as possible but not favored. My independent assessment is moderately higher than the market because structural advantages — a durable Likud vote, disciplined party organization, and predictable alliances with religious and right-wing parties — give Netanyahu multiple plausible paths back to the premiership if he or his allies can translate votes into coalition discipline.
Historical and institutional dynamics cut both ways: Netanyahu has repeatedly shown an ability to recover politically and to assemble coalitions even from fragmented parliaments, but Israeli government formation depends less on raw plurality and more on post-election coalition negotiations and presidential designation of the candidate able to form a majority. Legal proceedings and their timing are a critical wild card; a conviction or new legal restriction between now and swearing-in could materially change both voters' calculus and the president's and Knesset's willingness to appoint him.
External events and campaign dynamics will likely be decisive: major security incidents or perceived failures by rivals can swing undecided or soft-right voters back to Netanyahu, while prolonged economic pain, sustained protests, or revelations that broaden elite and public opposition could fracture his alliances. Given the multi-party proportional system, small shifts in turnout, seat allocation, or the behavior of one pivotal party leader can flip the post-election arithmetic and thereby make or break Netanyahu's path to the premiership.
In sum, Netanyahu retains nontrivial advantages that justify a material probability of return, but the threshold for becoming Prime Minister is high and contingent on legal outcomes, coalition bargaining, and external shocks; these make a conditional but far-from-certain forecast appropriate and lead me to place the probability at 42% rather than the market's 35%.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes
- Netanyahu commands a durable, mobilized base and Likud's party machinery is effective at converting organization into seats.
- He has a proven track record of post-election dealmaking and of assembling coalitions out of fragmented parliaments.
- Right-wing and religious parties that often partner with Likud can provide the coalition arithmetic necessary for a majority.
- Security-focused voters tend to consolidate behind experienced leaders during or after security incidents, which historically benefits incumbents like Netanyahu.
- Even without an outright majority, parliamentary fragmentation raises the value of experienced negotiators who can form broad-but-fragile coalitions, a role Netanyahu knows well.
Against
- Arguments against Yes
- Ongoing criminal indictments and potential legal developments could delegitimize or legally complicate his appointment and tenure.
- Persistent public fatigue, mass protests, or reputational damage could shrink Likud's vote share or persuade partners to distance themselves.
- Anti-Netanyahu forces have repeatedly shown willingness to form tactical alliances to block him, and a unified bloc could prevent his appointment.
- The president and kingmakers in coalition talks might prefer an alternative who can command a more stable or internationally palatable coalition.
- Small centrist or religious parties hold outsized leverage and could refuse to serve under Netanyahu while preferring a different prime minister.
Key drivers
- Netanyahu's core Likud vote share and the party's ability to win a plurality in the Knesset.
- Seats won by religious and far-right parties that are willing to join a Netanyahu-led coalition.
- Outcome and timeline of criminal proceedings or any new legal rulings affecting Netanyahu's eligibility or political standing.
- The president's post-election assessment and whom the president tasks with forming a government.
- The cohesion and strategic discipline of anti-Netanyahu parties and whether they can agree on a single candidate to form a majority coalition.
- Major security events before or after the election that could shift voter sentiment decisively toward or away from the incumbent style security-first leadership.
- Turnout dynamics among right-wing versus centrist and left-leaning voters, since small turnout swings can change seat distribution in a fragmented system.
- Public protest movements or elite defections that could erode coalition partners' willingness to sit with Netanyahu.
Risk factors
- A conviction or final judicial decision that alters Netanyahu's legal standing or makes serving politically untenable.
- A successful unification of diverse anti-Netanyahu parties into a coherent post-election coalition capable of naming an alternative prime minister.
- A presidential decision, informed by coalition signals, to task another leader with government formation despite Likud plurality.
- A major corruption or policy scandal during the campaign that reduces Likud's vote share or persuades coalition partners to abandon Netanyahu.
- Unexpected shifts in voter turnout patterns that disadvantage the right-wing bloc relative to centrist or left blocs.
- An economic shock or diplomatic crisis that undermines Netanyahu's perceived competence and electoral standing.
- Pivotal small parties or leaders extracting concessions that lead coalition partners to prefer a different figurehead over Netanyahu.
- International pressure or diplomatic developments that influence domestic coalition calculations and partner willingness to support Netanyahu.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu wins or Likud attains a clear plurality, bargaining with right-wing and religious partners secures a disciplined coalition, legal issues do not produce disqualifying outcomes, and he is formally designated and sworn in as Prime Minister within weeks of the election.
Most likely
Likud wins either a plurality or near-plurality but the Knesset math remains fragmented, producing intense coalition bargaining that ultimately leads to either a short-term pragmatic government headed by a centrist alternative or a fragile right-wing alliance that may or may not include Netanyahu depending on legal developments and partner willingness.
Worst case
A final conviction or decisive legal ruling, combined with a cohesive anti-Netanyahu majority or a presidential decision to back a different candidate, prevents his appointment and results in another leader being sworn in or a unity government that explicitly excludes him.
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