Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a modestly lower-than-even chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next Prime Minister after the 2026 election, with the main balancing forces being his strong core support and coalition skills versus legal exposures and the prospect of a united opposition or coalition breakdown.
Analysis
As of mid-2026 Netanyahu remains the dominant figure in Likud and the most prominent leader on the Israeli right, carrying the advantages of incumbency, name recognition, and a proven ability to lead campaign operations and coalition negotiations. The scheduled election on October 27, 2026 gives the incumbent several months to shape the campaign narrative, consolidate the right-wing bloc, and leverage government achievements or security messaging to boost support ahead of voting.
Israeli government formation always hinges on post-election coalition arithmetic rather than raw seat counts, and historically Netanyahu has shown a consistent ability to assemble diverse religious and nationalist partners to achieve a majority even when Likud does not win an absolute plurality of seats. That institutional pattern favors his prospects: if Likud remains the largest single party and core allies hold steady, he is the likeliest figure to be tapped to form a government.
Against those structural advantages are significant headwinds that materially reduce his probability: persistent legal matters and public protests (which remain unresolved as of mid-2026) create both political liability and the real possibility of legal or parliamentary constraints on his ability to be sworn in. Additionally, the opposition has motivation to coalesce around an agreed alternative candidate and tactical alliances have repeatedly unseated incumbents in Israel’s fragmented party system, meaning a unified anti-Netanyahu coalition could deny him the post-election mandate even if his party remains large.
Markets currently price roughly a one-in-three chance for a Netanyahu return, reflecting both his strengths and the very tangible tail risks; I weight those factors slightly more in his favor than the market does because incumbency and coalition experience are unusually valuable in Israel’s parliamentary environment, but not enough to make a majority likelihood given the legal uncertainties and the credible possibility of a cohesive opposition alliance or defections among smaller partners.
Arguments
For
- Incumbency provides Netanyahu with media visibility, resource advantages, and a record to campaign on.
- Netanyahu has a demonstrated track record of assembling multi-party coalitions to secure the prime ministership.
- A concentrated and loyal Likud base gives him a stable floor of parliamentary seats in most scenarios.
- Security-focused electorates tend to prefer experienced leaders in times of regional tension, which favors the incumbent.
- His campaign infrastructure and fundraising capacity remain among the strongest in Israeli politics.
Against
- Ongoing legal cases and public distrust create political vulnerability and may dissuade potential coalition partners.
- A unified opposition coalition could aggregate enough seats to block his path to a majority even if Likud is the largest party.
- Smaller ultra-Orthodox or nationalist partners can extract concessions or defect, making coalition arithmetic precarious.
- Voter fatigue and protest movements opposing his leadership have demonstrable capacity to lower his popular support.
- International diplomatic pressures or sanctions tied to judicial or policy controversies could weaken his domestic standing.
Key drivers
- Likud's raw seat total in the Knesset election will be the primary determinant of bargaining leverage.
- The willingness of religious and smaller right-wing parties to enter a coalition with Netanyahu determines whether he can reach a Knesset majority.
- The outcome and timing of ongoing legal proceedings against Netanyahu will materially affect his legitimacy and ability to be sworn in.
- Voter turnout patterns among secular, religious, and Arab voters will shift the balance between blocs in a fragmented party landscape.
- Security developments or military operations between now and the election can produce immediate swings toward or away from the incumbent.
- Leadership changes or strategic decisions within opposition parties to unite behind a single candidate would significantly lower Netanyahu's odds.
Risk factors
- A conviction, sentencing, or legal ruling that prevents Netanyahu from serving or that makes coalition partners unwilling to support him.
- A successful strategy by the opposition to coordinate candidacies and present a single, agreed-upon alternative prime minister.
- Major defections from Likud or its allied parties that reduce coalition possibilities after the vote.
- An acute security crisis that backfires politically on the government and mobilizes opposition voters.
- Judicial or electoral reforms that change post-election bargaining dynamics in unpredictable ways.
- Health, age-related issues, or internal Likud leadership challenges that force a leadership transition before government formation.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu leads Likud to a clear plurality, his allied religious and nationalist partners hold together, legal challenges are delayed or mitigated, and he successfully assembles a majority coalition and is sworn in as Prime Minister.
Most likely
Likud performs strongly but short of an outright majority; Netanyahu faces intense post-election bargaining where outcomes hinge on small parties, legal uncertainties remain unresolved, and a negotiated coalition either enables his return with concessions or blocks him if opposition coordination succeeds.
Worst case
A cohesive opposition bloc wins or assembles a majority combination, legal rulings or a conviction prevent Netanyahu from being appointed, or defections from his expected partners leave him unable to form a government and an alternative leader is sworn in.
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