Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore current market prices)**

Impeachment in the U.S. context means the House of Representatives passing articles of impeachment (a simple majority). It does not require conviction in the Senate to count as "impeached." Historically impeachments are unusual, but recent precedent shows they are politically viable in highly polarized contexts. Over the remainder of a presidential term there are multiple opportunities for events to trigger impeachment: new prosecutions, disclosures, congressional investigations, or dramatic political acts that create a partisan majority willing to move.

Arguments increasing the baseline chance include: sustained and visible legal and investigative friction around the President; a short-to-medium time horizon (roughly 3.5 years) that allows for developments and shifting House majorities; and clear incentives for an opposing House majority to use impeachment as a political and oversight tool even if removal in the Senate is unlikely.

Constraints that reduce the baseline chance include: impeachment requires a House majority willing to take the political cost; partisan incentives often dissuade removal-focused actions if they are perceived as electorally risky; and the legal evidentiary bar for a politically durable impeachment that survives public scrutiny can be significant. Additionally, the Senate conviction threshold is high (2/3) and historically rare, and while conviction isn't required for the "impeached" designation the anticipated lack of removal can reduce the willingness of some Representatives to pursue articles.

Weighing these competing forces, the neutral (market-agnostic) assessment should reflect a substantial tail risk but not a majority probability. The President's profile (polarizing, high-newsflow) and existing institutional friction push the probability up from historical baselines for presidents, but the political realities of House majorities, electoral timing and public opinion limit it. On balance I place the independent probability at **48%** that the House will pass articles of impeachment before Jan 20, 2029.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (take current prices into account)**

Current market prices: Yes 65% / No 35% (event volume large). The market is substantially higher than my independent 48% estimate.

Why the market might be pricing higher than my independent view: - **Conflation and framing effects.** Traders may be conflating "impeachment" with any forced exit mechanism (resignation, removal, disability), or copying commentary that equates impeachment as the likely mechanism for any early exit. If some participants read headlines or product descriptions imprecisely, that will boost the price. - **Headline-driven risk premium.** Markets with heavy retail and partisan participation tend to overweight salient, dramatic outcomes (impeachment) relative to slower-moving institutional constraints. High newsflow and volatility can push short-term probability estimates upward. - **Liquidity and crowding.** High volume can reflect concentrated bets from traders who are particularly attentive to legal developments and therefore place outsized price pressure.

Why the market could be correct (i.e., market is pricing real information I underweighted): - **Unevaluated legal tail risk.** There may be investigations, indictments, or undisclosed evidence that traders are already factoring in but which I can't observe here. - **Midterm/House flip probability.** If market participants believe the opposition will control the House for a long enough period and are confident they will pursue impeachment aggressively, that alone pushes the chance above 50%.

Calibration conclusion: the market at 65% likely embeds a mix of real risk and behavioral/poll-driven overreaction. My independent 48% is lower because I require both a political majority in the House willing to act and sufficiently compelling developments; markets appear to be assigning higher weight to headline/legal tail risks and to conflating exit-with-impeachment. If new, tangible information emerges (major indictments, a switch in House control, or an explicit impeachment inquiry announced by House leadership) my probability should and would converge toward the market; absent such signals I view the market as likely overpricing impeachment by ~10–20 percentage points due to crowding and framing effects.