Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Given Netanyahu's durable electoral base and superior coalition-building experience but significant legal and political headwinds, I assess a below-even but non-negligible chance he will be sworn in as Prime Minister after the next election.
Analysis
As of mid-2026, the baseline strength for Benjamin Netanyahu remains his entrenched personal vote, the organizational capacity of Likud, and experience in forming post-election coalitions; these factors historically translate into a persistent probability that he either leads the largest faction or can assemble a governing majority. Incumbency advantages, name recognition, and Likud's ability to mobilize a reliable right-wing electorate mean Netanyahu is often the first person kingmakers and party leaders consider when coalition talks begin, which sustains a meaningful chance of his return even if his party falls short of an outright majority.
Countervailing pressures are substantial and material to the outcome: ongoing legal proceedings and the possibility of a conviction or other judicial developments could materially reduce his ability to be sworn in or make him a politically toxic partner for potential coalition allies; fracture within the right-wing bloc and disputes with potential kingmakers over portfolios and policy have repeatedly complicated Netanyahu's coalition arithmetic in recent cycles. The opposition side can plausibly assemble alternative coalitions if centrist and left parties coordinate with Arab parties or if a credible centrist candidate consolidates anti-Netanyahu sentiment, and demographic changes or turnout shifts (notably Arab and younger voters) could swing seat distributions away from Likud.
External and contingency factors add wide variance to any forecast: large security events or economic shocks between now and October 2026 could either rally voters to an experienced leader (benefiting Netanyahu) or delegitimize him if perceived to be mishandled, and changes in Israeli law or parliamentary norms could either entrench or weaken his standing; market-implied probabilities around one-third reflect that traders price both the durability of his machine and the sizable tail risks against him. Given the combination of durable strengths and significant, plausible failure modes, a mid-to-high thirties probability best captures the balance of outcomes where he returns versus scenarios where legal, political, or coalition obstacles prevent him from being sworn in by the December 31, 2027 cutoff.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu has a deep and durable personal vote and a well-organized Likud machine capable of winning or placing first in multiple elections.
- He has extensive experience negotiating coalition deals and has repeatedly returned to power after electoral setbacks.
- Right-wing and religious parties have often preferred Netanyahu as the natural leader of a conservative coalition, increasing his coalition odds.
- Incumbency and international stature can rally voters and allies around a familiar leadership figure during crises.
- Fragmentation on the center-left reduces the likelihood of a unified anti-Netanyahu alternative unless parties coordinate effectively.
Against
- Ongoing criminal trials create legal and political exposures that can remove or substantially weaken Netanyahu as a viable candidate.
- Persistent right-wing fragmentation and disputes over portfolios have in prior cycles prevented Netanyahu from securing stable coalition partners.
- A coordinated centrist-left coalition, potentially with Arab party support, could outflank Likud even if it is the largest single party.
- Public protest fatigue and anti-corruption mobilization can depress Netanyahu's turnout or shift swing voters away from him.
- International pressure or diplomatic fallout could make some potential coalition partners reluctant to serve under his leadership.
- Electoral dynamics and turnout swings among Arab and younger voters could materially reduce Likud's seat share and Netanyahu's pathway.
Key drivers
- Likud's nationwide vote share and seat count in the October 2026 election.
- The willingness of religious and far-right kingmakers to enter a coalition led by Netanyahu or accept an alternative right-wing leader.
- The status, timing, and legal outcome of Netanyahu's ongoing criminal proceedings and any convictions or appeals.
- Turnout levels among Arab, young, and center-left voters which can alter seat distributions significantly in tight races.
- Formation of alliances or mergers among centrist and opposition parties that could create a viable anti-Netanyahu bloc.
- Major security events or economic shocks between now and the election that meaningfully shift voter sentiment toward or away from incumbents.
Risk factors
- A criminal conviction or final judicial decision that materially undermines Netanyahu's ability to serve or persuades coalition partners to reject him.
- Fragmentation within the right-wing bloc producing insufficient partners to reach a Knesset majority under Netanyahu's leadership.
- A successful consolidation of centrists and left-wing parties with Arab party backing forming a majority coalition excluding Netanyahu.
- A major corruption or policy scandal close to the election that erodes Netanyahu's support among swing and right-leaning voters.
- Rule changes or parliamentary maneuvers that either disqualify or politically sideline Netanyahu before a government is sworn in.
- An unexpected personal health issue or sudden incapacitation that prevents Netanyahu from taking office.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu leads Likud to a plurality or narrow plurality, rapidly assembles a coalition with religious and far-right partners who accept portfolio compromises, and is officially sworn in as Prime Minister within the post-election formation window.
Most likely
Likud remains one of the largest parties but falls short of a clear majority; coalition bargaining is protracted and ultimately results in either a non-Netanyahu coalition forming with centrists and Arab support or Likud governing under a different leader or arrangement that leaves Netanyahu out of the premiership.
Worst case
Legal developments produce a conviction or final judgment that either disqualifies Netanyahu politically or forces key partners to abandon him, the opposition forms a majority coalition without Likud leadership, and Netanyahu is not sworn in by the resolution deadline.
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