Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
I assess an 18% independent probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will resign during President Trump's term. This reflects his demonstrated longevity, lack of public signals to step down, and the distinction between resignation and other endpoints (illness/death).
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**
- *Baseline facts and scope:* The market question is narrowly about a *resignation* during Trump's term (through 2029-01-20). Important: **death or incapacitation that produces a vacancy does not count unless accompanied by a formal resignation announcement**. That materially reduces the chance relative to a generic ‘vacancy’ prediction.
- *Age and activity:* Clarence Thomas is in his late 70s. Many justices historically remain on the bench into advanced age and continue to hear cases; some reduce workload but do not formally resign. Thomas in particular has shown strong persistence on the Court and a pattern of continued participation. Longevity and visible activity lower the odds of a voluntary resignation in the coming ~2.6 years.
- *Health considerations:* Serious health events can precipitate retirement, but absent a public health crisis or announcement, projecting an involuntary or planned resignation is speculative. Historic single-case retirements at this age are non-negligible but not the norm.
- *Political incentives and timing:* Traditionally, some justices time retirements to allow a like-minded president to appoint a successor. For conservative justices, retiring under a Republican president is a plausible strategic behavior. However, Justice Thomas is ideologically aligned with Trump, so there is limited ideological incentive for him to create a vacancy for this president — unless private considerations (health, family) dominate.
- *Empirical translation into probability:* Starting from a rough annual voluntary resignation hazard for justices in their late 70s (net of death) of approximately 6–8% per year, a 2.6-year window implies a cumulative probability in the mid-teens. Accounting for Thomas’s demonstrated willingness to stay on and the resignation-vs-death distinction, I center my independent estimate at **18%**.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (incorporating current market prices):**
- The current market price shows *Yes = 22%* (No = 78%). My independent probability (18%) is moderately lower than the market-implied probability. The gap is small (4 percentage points) but notable.
- *Why the market might be higher:* Traders may be (a) conflating vacancies from death with voluntary resignation, (b) overweighting political motivation for Thomas to step down while a Republican occupies the White House, or (c) responding to latent information or rumor risk that I do not have. Volume (~73k contracts) indicates meaningful interest and some liquidity; that can attract a variety of heuristics-driven bets.
- *Is the market mispriced?* I view the market as slightly overpriced on the 'Yes' side. The edge is modest. A trader who is confident in the resignation-vs-death distinction and Thomas’s historical persistence could rationally sell Yes exposure here, but transaction costs, the possibility of new private information, or an unforeseen health announcement means the trade contains genuine risk.
- *Practical takeaway:* My independent probability is 18%. Given market = 22%, I consider the market to modestly overstate resignation risk. This is not a large arbitrage; it's a small, conditional edge that depends on conviction about the factors above.
Arguments
For
- Age-related increase in the probability of stepping down within a multi-year window relative to younger justices
- Potential private health developments or family reasons could produce a voluntary resignation
- Some justices time retirements to allow ideological successors under a friendly president; that dynamic exists as a non-zero incentive
- Unexpected scandals or revelations could make continued service untenable and prompt a resignation announcement
- If Thomas reduced his workload substantially, that could be a leading indicator of an upcoming formal resignation
Against
- Thomas has a documented pattern of longevity and continued active participation; no public signals strongly point toward resignation
- The question requires a resignation announcement; death or incapacitation (which are more likely with age) would not qualify, lowering the effective probability
- Ideological alignment with President Trump reduces strategic incentive to step down for a sympathetic successor
- Justices frequently remain unless a decisive health or personal change occurs; such changes are unpredictable and relatively rare over a ~2.6-year window
- No current verified reporting or direct statements indicate plans to resign, which is the most common precursor to retirement
Key drivers
- Clarence Thomas's age and observable workload/attendance
- Public/medical signals about his health (announcements, hospitalizations)
- Private family or personal considerations unknown to the public
- Strategic timing incentives to create a vacancy for a like-minded president
- Distinction between resignation and death/incapacity (market confusion risk)
- New controversies or revelations that could prompt voluntary departure
Risk factors
- A sudden serious health event that leads to a retirement announcement (not all health events produce one)
- Misinterpretation by the market of 'vacancy' risk vs explicit resignation risk
- Unreported private discussions with the White House or family changing plans
- High-impact late-breaking news (scandal, medical update) that shifts probabilities sharply
- Low liquidity or concentrated position movement that can move price away from objective odds
- Judicial norms changing (e.g., increasing trend of early retirements) altering baseline hazard
Scenarios
Best case
Yes — Thomas announces a planned resignation timed to allow President Trump to appoint a successor. This could occur if a private health concern or family decision leads him to step down strategically; market participants seize on early rumors and push the Yes price higher before a formal announcement.
Most likely
Most likely Thomas continues serving without a formal resignation announcement. He may reduce some duties or miss occasional cases, but no public resignation occurs before the term ends, leading the market to resolve 'No'.
Worst case
No — Thomas remains on the Court with no resignation announcement through 2029-01-20. A vacancy could occur due to death or incapacitation, but without a resignation the market resolves 'No'. Traders who bought 'Yes' lose their positions.
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