Will President Trump be impeached during his term?

**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market price):**

- Background and scope: The question asks only whether the President will be impeached (i.e., articles of impeachment passed by the House) before Jan 20, 2029, not whether he will be removed by the Senate. Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House. Historically impeachment is rare, but the modern era is highly polarized and Trump has previously been impeached twice — establishing both precedent and partisan willingness to pursue impeachment when politically advantageous.

- Key factual drivers I weigh without looking at the market: ongoing legal exposures and investigations that could produce new evidence or public revelations; the partisan control of the House at different times between now and Jan 2029 (which directly controls the feasibility of an impeachment vote); Trump’s prior history with impeachment and the demonstrated willingness of both parties to use impeachment as a political tool; and political incentives ahead of and after the 2026 and 2028 elections that will shape leadership and pressure on a Speaker to bring articles to the floor.

- Probabilistic reasoning: I break the problem into two components: (A) the probability that the House at any relevant moment during the remainder of the term is controlled by a coalition willing to pass articles; and (B) conditional on such a House, the probability that sufficient evidence or political incentives arise to produce an impeachment vote. Conservatively, I estimate a non-trivial chance the House will be controlled by the opposition at least briefly (reflecting midterm swings and the 2026/2028 electoral cycles). Given strong legal exposures and Trump's well-known contentious style, if a House majority opposed to him exists the conditional chance of impeachment is elevated. Combining these (and accounting for scenarios where the opposition refuses to ride political risk), I arrive at an independent probability of about **58%** that the House will impeach before Jan 20, 2029.

- Other considerations that shaped the estimate: prior impeachments of Trump lower the procedural friction (committees, precedent, investigative frameworks already in place). Conversely, the political cost of impeachment — especially if the President’s party controls the House — is a powerful deterrent. The remaining time window (about 3.5 years from mid-2026) is long enough for new revelations or a change in House control to occur, increasing cumulative risk versus a shorter period.

**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to current prices):**

- Current market: Yes = 61%, No = 39% (market commentary also shows related lines at ~58%–61% for various cutoffs). My independent probability (58%) is slightly below the market-implied 61%.

- Why the market might be a bit higher than my independent estimate: - Traders may be overweighting *cumulative* signals (multiple related markets and headlines) and recent narrative momentum (previously high-impeachment talk), pushing the price above my judged fair probability. - Markets often price in tail-risk events and ambiguity; some liquidity providers may be using hedges or correlated bets that compress the No side, mechanically raising Yes. - The market’s 61% figure may reflect a short-horizon product (e.g., through Jan 1, 2028) that traders roll into the longer-dated contract, producing a small upward bias.

- Is the market mispriced? The gap is small (61% vs my 58%). Given transaction costs, large volume, and ongoing information flow, I see the market as roughly consistent with my view; if anything it slightly overstates immediate impeachment likelihood. A trader who believes House control is unlikely to flip or who gives more weight to political restraint should view the market as modestly overpriced; conversely, traders who expect fresh legal shocks or a high probability of an opposition House will view the market as fair or even underpriced.

- Practical implication: Markets are informative and the current price is close to my independent estimate. I am not flagging a large arbitrage opportunity, only a modest difference that could widen if new investigative developments or clear shifts in House control appear.