Edges for Jun 2, 2026

Independent assessment: I estimate a ~10% chance Elon Musk will be a trillionaire before 2027-01-01. The upside path requires extreme, rapid re‑valuations (Tesla and/or SpaceX) in a short seven‑month window—plausible but unlikely.

Given the unusually large 2026 surge (≈1,983 confirmed cases by May 28) and the outbreak-driven nature of measles, I assess a high probability that the Trump Administration’s 2025–2028 average annual measles case count will be in the elevated range — my independent probability for a 'Yes' outcome is 72%.

I assign a 40% probability that a recognizable “Trump bull case” will materialize in 2026 — plausible because a continued AI-led market rally plus selective policy wins can be spun into a political victory, but constrained by narrow breadth, policy uncertainty, and event-definition ambiguity.

Low probability — I assess a ~12% chance that Barron Trump will receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029.

**Independent assessment:** Very unlikely — I assign a low probability that Trump will actually "take back" (i.e., regain sovereign or operational control of) the Panama Canal during a Trump term; rhetoric and pressure are plausible, forcible or formal transfer is not.

Elon Musk is the most likely single person to become the world's first trillionaire by 2030, but it is far from certain — I assess ~66% probability based on his concentrated upside across public and private companies and a plausible path to 4–6x wealth growth by 2030.

I assess a materially higher chance than the market that a credible "bear case" for Trump will manifest during 2026: legal and institutional headwinds plus continued policy friction make a damaging year more likely than markets (Yes: 15%) currently price. My independent probability: 40%.

I estimate a 25% chance that at least one listed cabinet-level official will be impeached by Jul 1, 2026 — primarily driven by an active impeachment proceeding against Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte that has meaningful short-term risk of producing an impeachment vote within the 30-day window.

Based on friend history, the long lead time before the wedding, and the available but mixed reporting, I assess a modestly better-than-even chance that Blake Lively will attend — about 46% — even though short-term coverage skews toward her being unlikely or uninvited.

I assess a 72% chance that Predict.fun's governance token will have an FDV above $50M one day after launch, reflecting solid market optimism balanced against tokenomics uncertainty, launch mechanics, and macro/market risks.

Scottie Scheffler is a top-tier, peak-age player with multiple clear opportunities between now and 2028; I assess a materially above-market chance he completes the career grand slam before 2028.

I assess a low probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will *voluntarily* resign during President Trump's 2025–2029 term — roughly an 18% chance — because he is active, has strong ideological incentives to remain, and has shown institutional durability, though advanced age raises non-negligible risk.

I estimate a 38% probability that incumbent Oh Se-hoon wins the 3 June 2026 Seoul mayoral election; this is notably higher than the market-implied 16.5% but reflects incumbency advantages balanced against Seoul’s competitive, opposition-leaning electorate and several tail risks.

I assess a low probability that the U.S. will acquire any part of Greenland by Jan 21, 2029 — the combination of legal, political, and diplomatic hurdles makes formal transfer unlikely despite high rhetoric and strategic interest.

I assess a 60% probability that the U.S. will fall below 7.60 on the Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index sometime during a Trump administration between 2025 and 2028 — likely driven by declines in civil liberties, functioning of government, and political culture, though institutional resilience and corrective political reactions temper the risk.

I assess Donald Trump has a modest but real chance to secure the 2028 Republican nomination if he runs and legal/health obstacles are absent, but substantial structural and political headwinds make this outcome unlikely overall.

I assess a modest but non-negligible 18% probability that Bitcoin reaches $200,000 by December 31, 2026, reflecting Bitcoin's capacity for fast, large moves weighed against substantial macro and regulatory headwinds and the short time horizon.

I assess an 8% chance that Trump will buy at least part of Greenland during his term. Renewed rhetoric and emissary activity increase the chance of diplomatic pressure or transactional proposals, but legal, political, and practical barriers make an actual purchase of sovereign Greenland highly unlikely.

Independent assessment: relocation to Indiana by the first regular-season game of 2028 is a live possibility but not the favorite; I estimate a 45% chance based on legislative momentum in Indiana offset by NFL approval, financing, and Illinois' remaining pathways.

I assess a 35% chance that IMF Portwatch's 7-day moving average for Strait of Hormuz arrivals will reach or exceed 60 at least once by June 30, 2026, because a quick, localized rebound is plausible but the short time window and persistent downside risks make recovery unlikely.

I assess that it is overwhelmingly likely the U.S. will NOT acquire Greenland during Trump’s term — very unlikely there will be a formal transfer of sovereignty or purchase agreement.

I assess a very high likelihood that either OpenAI or Anthropic will be the first to IPO before 2040 (most likely Anthropic), because the time horizon is long and Anthropic’s capital and governance profile makes an earlier public offering far more probable than neither company ever listing.

I assess a 38% chance that at least one U.S. quarter will show >5% annualized real GDP growth in Q1 2025–Q4 2028. Strong policy stimulus or an outsized rebound could produce a >5% quarter, but current momentum, inflation/monetary constraints, and structural limits make a boom more unlikely than the market price implies.

I assess a ~38% independent probability that the 25th Amendment will be *used* at least once during Trump's presidency — most likely via a Section 3 voluntary transfer for a medical procedure, with a smaller tail risk of a Section 4 involuntary declaration.

Xavier Becerra is a clear frontrunner with strong name recognition, institutional backing, and fundraising potential, but a crowded top-two primary and turnout/late-candidate risks keep the outcome from being certain; I assign a 72% chance he finishes first.

Although market prices currently imply a very low chance, the fact that three CONCACAF nations co-host the tournament materially raises the probability that a North American team wins; I assess the chance at about 12% based on team strength, home advantage, and the expanded 48-team format increasing upset potential.

Independent assessment: James Ho is a plausible frontrunner but faces substantial structural uncertainty; I estimate a 26% chance he will be the next Supreme Court justice named by 20 Jan 2029.

I assess a very low probability (~3%) that the United States will acquire any part of Canada before 2029. Only narrow, technical transfers or an extreme geopolitical shock could realistically produce a 'Yes'.

Independent assessment: I estimate an ~18% chance Elon Musk personally visits Mars before Aug 1, 2099 — materially higher than the current market price but still low because of lifespan, technical delays, and corporate risk management.

I assess a materially nonzero but still relatively low chance that the Supreme Court will fully overturn marriage equality before 2029 — about an 18% probability — driven by the conservative bench’s demonstrated willingness to revisit major precedents, balanced against strong societal reliance interests and the absence (so far) of a clear, cert-worthy case asking Obergefell to be overturned.

I assess a low probability (~12%) that Trump will both be impeached by the House and then removed by the Senate before his term ends — impeachment is materially more likely than removal, but removal requires an historically high level of bipartisan Senate support.

I assess a 12% chance that President Trump will voluntarily resign before his term ends; resignation is a low-probability tail event driven mainly by extreme health or a narrowly negotiated political/legal deal, not by ordinary political pressure.

I assess a ~30% chance USAID will be formally eliminated during Trump's 2025–2029 term: plausible via budgetary attack or reorganization but unlikely because of statutory, congressional, national-security, and humanitarian barriers.

I assess a low chance that China’s nominal GDP (measured in USD) will overtake the U.S. by 2030 — around 12% — because the gap is large and requires sustained, unusually high nominal Chinese growth and/or a significant USD/CNY move.

I assess a very low independent probability (2%) that any part of Greenland becomes the 51st U.S. state before Jan 20, 2029 — the available evidence shows rhetoric but no legal or political pathway, and the procedural, diplomatic, and timeline hurdles are severe.

I assess an 8% chance that Bitcoin will reach $90,000 at any point in June 2026, a low-probability tail outcome driven by short-term macro tailwinds or concentrated flows but constrained by the large price move required and limited time horizon.

Given the market's very strong Yes pricing (≈95.5%) and the short one-minute resolution horizon, I assess a high probability that Binance ETH/USDT will close above $1,900 at 12:00 ET on June 2, but I discount a few tail risks that can cause brief intraminute moves so my probability is slightly below the market-implied level.

I assess there is a better-than-even (58%) chance the House will impeach President Trump before Jan 20, 2029, driven by the combination of ongoing legal/political exposures and the plausibility of a hostile House majority at some point during the term.

I assess a low probability (4%) that President Trump will succeed in ending the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029. Abolishing the Fed requires major congressional legislation or an extreme constitutional crisis; current evidence points to leadership change, not institutional termination.

I assess a low probability (12%) that the United States will launch an invasion intended to establish control over any portion of Iran before 2027, because the operational, political, and diplomatic costs are very high and more limited forms of pressure or retaliation are historically preferred.

I assess an 18% chance the New York Yankees will win the 2026 World Series, slightly higher than the market-implied 13% because of the franchise's financial advantages and ability to improve during the season, but constrained by age/injury risk, strong competition, and postseason variance.

I estimate an 8% chance that Ethereum will reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026, reflecting a low-probability but plausible tail outcome driven by rapid institutional flows or a strong risk-on macro environment.

I assess a modest but non-negligible chance that Ethereum will trade at or above $2,500 at some point in June, assigning about a 12% probability based on macro/Bitcoin correlation, potential short-term catalysts, and persistent downside risks from macro and regulatory pressure.

I assess Marine Le Pen has a modest but non-negligible chance (~10%) of winning in 2027, reflecting her name recognition and prior vote share balanced against the structural difficulty far-right candidates face in two-round French runoffs and uncertainty about whether she will be the RN nominee.

With less than four weeks remaining and no publicly available confirming reports, I assess a below-even chance that the United States and Iran will announce a mutual nuclear agreement by June 30, 2026, but meaningful diplomatic momentum or a last-minute breakthrough keeps the probability non-negligible.

I assess a 72% probability that Andy Burnham will win the 2026 Makerfield by-election, reflecting his strong regional profile and Labour's historical strength in the area, while accounting for uncertainty about whether he will choose to stand and local backlash risks.

I assess a high probability that Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute close at 12:00 ET on June 6 will be above $64,000, but single-minute resolution and exchange-specific risks keep the chance below unanimity.