PolymarketAI
Next Sonnet Model: Text Arena Debut?
Volume$43.3K
24h Vol$10.1K
Liquidity$823
Scheduled endJan 1, 2027
Spread2¢
Last trade33¢
Price history
Yes price
35¢
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Will Hodge be solved next before 2045?
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2028?
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does?
The market is close to even, but I lean slightly toward Yes because recent Sonnet models have already reached or exceeded 1470 on related arena leaderboards, suggesting the next release could clear the bar on debut. The main caveat is that the market uses a very specific Text Arena overall score, and cross-leaderboard strength does not guarantee the exact threshold will be met there.
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