
The market is strongly tilted toward Yes because a 2026 result already appears to have crossed 60% on Humanity’s Last Exam. The main remaining uncertainty is benchmark framing and source matching, not whether the threshold itself has been surpassed.
Read the analysisWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Will Hodge be solved next before 2045?
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2027?
Will all remaining Millennium Prize Problems be solved before 2028?
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?