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Edges Markets Sim Watchlist

PolymarketNov 4 Elections

NC-03 House Election Winner

Volume$1.2M

24h Vol$174.1K

Liquidity$23.1K

Scheduled endNov 4, 2026

Spread1¢

Last trade77¢

AI runs fresh news through an independent probability model. Trades use paper money at live prices.

Price history

Yes price

76¢

All outcomes

Raymond Smith Jr. (D)76%
Greg Murphy (R)24%

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In today's edges

politicsPolymarketPolymarket rank #3 · Nov 6, 2026

AI33%

MKT23%

Edge+10Undervalued

Leaning Yes: Greg Murphy is ahead by 233 votes with all 190 precincts reporting on November 5, and the race is still too close to fully lock in. That tiny lead is enough to keep Republican retention more likely than the market price suggests.

Read the analysis