

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
Will Yang–Mills be solved next before 2045?
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be resolved before 2028?
A release by October 1 is possible, but the evidence still points more strongly to a later launch window. I would put the chance of Yes slightly below the current market price because Google has signaled urgency without giving any date.
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