Resolves Jan 31, 2028
GDP growth in 2036?
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 0.5%?
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 6.0%?
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 9.0%?
Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2036 be above 57.00%?
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 4.75%?
I think a 2027 recession is more likely than the market implies, but still not the base case. My independent estimate is 38%, reflecting a meaningful downside risk from valuation shocks, tightening financial conditions, and delayed effects from today’s investment and labor dynamics.
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