Scheduled end Jul 1, 2027
GDP growth in 2036?
Will the 12-month percentage change in CPI-U in December 2036 be above 0.5%?
Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 6.0%?
Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2036 be above 9.0%?
Will U.S. labor force participation rate for December 2036 be above 57.00%?
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 4.75%?
I see a meaningful but still minority chance of a Fed cut by year-end 2026, roughly 18%. The market’s 2.5% price looks too low given that a policy pivot can happen quickly if data soften or financial conditions tighten.
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