Bangladesh vs West Indies
No edge: the market’s 55% draw price is broadly fair. West Indies’ 98-run lead on day four hurts the draw, but enough time remains for weather, slow scoring, or a stalemate.
Analysis
As of November 8, 2026, West Indies are 128/2 in their second innings and lead by 98 runs at lunch. Bangladesh’s lower order was weakened because Shadman Islam cannot bat, which helps West Indies but does not rule out a draw.
With day five still available, the match can still drift into a stalemate if West Indies bat conservatively or cannot force a quick collapse. The draw remains the likeliest single outcome, but West Indies' current position keeps the game live enough that the market price looks fair.
Arguments
For
- There is still a full day left in the scheduled match window.
- Test matches on a worn pitch often slow enough for a draw.
Against
- West Indies already control the scoreboard with a healthy second-innings lead.
- Bangladesh are one batter short, making a last-innings survival harder.
Key drivers
- West Indies’ 98-run lead on day four
- Remaining time through the scheduled November 9 finish
Risk factors
- Bangladesh’s injured opener is unavailable to bat
- A quick West Indies lead expansion could force a result
Scenarios
Best case
If West Indies bat slowly or declare late (later today), Yes rises to about 63%.
Most likely
Most likely West Indies keep pressing while Bangladesh try to save the game, with Yes around 55%.
Worst case
If West Indies extend the lead quickly (later today), Yes falls to about 42%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Draw/Tie | 55% | 55% |
| West Indies | 28% | 28% |
| Bangladesh | 17% | 14% |
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