Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Leaning No: Mullin is still serving as DHS secretary as of November 7, 2026, and there has been no resignation or removal announcement. The fresh post-election oversight pressure is real, but it has not yet turned into a departure signal.
Analysis
As of November 7, 2026, Markwayne Mullin is still listed and acting as Secretary of Homeland Security, with no resignation, removal, or replacement announcement reported. That is the most important fact for this market because it shows he remains in place late in the year, with only about seven weeks left before resolution.
The main reason to stay below the market price is simple: there is still no concrete departure news, and his recent public activity suggests continuity, not exit. The counterweight is the new congressional oversight after the November elections, which raises political risk, but it has not yet produced any official move out of the administration.
Arguments
For
- Recent official and public references continue to treat Mullin as the sitting DHS secretary.
- He has publicly reaffirmed the administration's immigration agenda in the last few days, which points to active participation in the role.
Against
- The new congressional majority may intensify investigations into DHS and create incentive for a leadership shakeup.
- There is still meaningful calendar time before December 31 for an announcement or formal departure to occur.
Key drivers
- Mullin is still formally serving in his role on November 7, 2026, with no public leave announcement.
- There is limited time left before December 31, but the market still needs an actual resignation, removal, or cessation of service.
Risk factors
- Post-election oversight from Congress could increase pressure on DHS leadership and trigger a personnel change.
- A rapid replacement or resignation could be announced with little warning, which is still possible before year-end.
Scenarios
Best case
If Mullin is announced as resigning or being removed in November 2026, Yes rises to about 95%.
Most likely
Most likely he stays in place through year-end absent a late political shock, with Yes around 20%.
Worst case
If he remains DHS secretary through December 31, 2026, Yes falls to about 2%.
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