University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026
Slight lean to No: the November 6 preliminary sentiment reading was 51.0, far above the 40.0 cutoff. A revision of more than 11 points would be needed to flip this market, which is very unlikely.
Analysis
The freshest data point is the November 6, 2026 preliminary reading of 51.0, and it sits well above the 40.0 threshold. That leaves a large cushion before the final November 20 release can resolve below 40.0.
The main risk is revision, since the market resolves on the final figure, not the preliminary. Even so, Michigan sentiment usually does not swing by 11 points in the final update, so the under-40 outcome looks remote unless the final report is a major downward correction.
Arguments
For
- The latest reading is already more than 10 points above the cutoff, which gives Yes very little room to reach the under-40 outcome.
- Both current conditions and expectations improved in the preliminary report, suggesting the final number is more likely to stay comfortably above 40.0.
Against
- This market resolves on the final November release, and preliminary readings can be revised.
- If the final tabulation pulls sentiment down materially from 51.0, the margin above 40.0 could shrink faster than expected.
Key drivers
- The preliminary November 2026 index is 51.0, which is 11.0 points above the 40.0 line.
- The final release is only a revision from the same survey month, so it would need an unusually large downward adjustment to cross below 40.0.
Risk factors
- The final November 20 release could revise the preliminary number down if late responses were weak or the estimate was noisy.
- A sharp deterioration in the final survey tabulation would have to be large enough to erase the entire gap to 40.0.
Scenarios
Best case
If the November 20 final release holds near the preliminary 51.0, Yes rises to about 0.5%.
Most likely
Most likely the final November 2026 index stays above 40.0 by a wide margin, with Yes around 1-2%.
Worst case
If the final November release is revised all the way below 40.0 on November 20, Yes falls to about 90%.
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