Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Leaning No: the freshest poll on November 7 shows Shen ahead by 17.3 points, and he leads in 11 of 12 districts. Chiang still has a path because other surveys conflict, but the latest data tilts against him.
Analysis
The freshest major poll on November 7, 2026 has Chiang trailing 35.3% to 52.6%, with Shen ahead in 11 of Taipei’s 12 districts. That is a serious warning sign this late in the race, even though other recent polls have pointed the other way.
Chiang’s case is that polling is highly mixed by method, with some telephone and online surveys still showing him ahead. But with election day on November 28, the newest district-level numbers matter most, and they currently favor Shen.
Arguments
For
- Chiang still has incumbency and citywide name recognition, which can hold support steady in a close local race.
- Recent conflicting polls mean the November 7 result may not fully capture the final electorate.
- A strong final turnout push from his campaign could reduce Shen’s advantage in the last three weeks.
Against
- The newest poll is not just slightly unfavorable; it shows a double-digit deficit for Chiang.
- Shen’s lead appears geographically broad, which is harder to erase than a single district weakness.
- Earlier and newer polling trends include multiple surveys with Shen ahead, suggesting Chiang is not the clear favorite.
Key drivers
- The November 7 poll shows Chiang behind by 17.3 points, which is the strongest fresh signal in the race.
- Shen’s reported edge across 11 of 12 Taipei districts suggests the lead is broad rather than a single-area spike.
Risk factors
- Polling is inconsistent across methods, and Chiang has other recent surveys showing him ahead or close.
- Late campaign mobilization from Chiang, including the November 24 to 26 district motorcade, could narrow the gap before voting.
Scenarios
Best case
If Chiang closes the gap in the final late-October to November polling and the November 28 vote mirrors the Chiang-favoring surveys, Yes rises to about 72%.
Most likely
Most likely the race stays competitive but slightly favors Shen, with Yes around 63%.
Worst case
If the November 28 election confirms the November 7 polling lead for Shen, Yes falls to about 35%.
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