Crystal Palace FC vs. Liverpool FC
Leaning No: Palace are missing Ismaïla Sarr and suspended Jean-Philippe Mateta, which materially weakens their attack against a still-strong Liverpool side. The market’s 16.5% yes price looks a bit high given those late-November 7 absences.
Analysis
November 8, 2026: Palace are set to play and the biggest fresh team news is bad for them, with Sarr out and Mateta suspended, while Tomiyasu is also unavailable. That leaves Palace short of their usual scoring punch right before kickoff.
Liverpool also have absences and have lost their last two, so this is not a clean spot for the favorite. Even so, Palace still look like a clear underdog at Selhurst Park, and the missing attackers nudge this below the market’s yes price.
Arguments
For
- Liverpool arrive after back-to-back defeats, so their form is not ideal.
- Several Liverpool players are still reported unavailable or doubtful, including Gravenberch and Frimpong.
- Palace are at home, which gives them a real but limited upset path.
Against
- Palace are missing both Sarr and Mateta, which likely reduces their chance creation and finishing.
- Liverpool’s projected XI still looks stronger on paper, especially if Isak, Wirtz and Gakpo all start.
- Palace have been described as struggling recently, which lowers confidence in a home win.
Key drivers
- Palace are without both Ismaïla Sarr and Jean-Philippe Mateta on November 8, cutting into their best goal sources.
- Liverpool’s recent losses and injury list leave some opening for Palace, but not enough to make them close to even-money.
Risk factors
- If Liverpool’s returning attackers click immediately, Palace’s win chances stay very low.
- If Palace’s projected replacements like Jørgen Strand Larsen or Eddie Nketiah outperform expectations, the upset case improves.
Scenarios
Best case
If Liverpool are rotated heavily or lose another starter in warmups before the 14:00 GMT kickoff, Yes rises to about 18%.
Most likely
Most likely Liverpool control more of the match and Palace need a low-scoring upset path, with Yes around 12% to 14%.
Worst case
If Liverpool’s expected attacking trio starts and Palace struggle to replace Mateta on November 8, Yes falls to about 9%.
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