Buffalo vs Minnesota: Spread
Slight lean to No: the market has settled near Buffalo -3, which leaves a meaningful gap to the -4.5 cover needed. Wentz starting helps Buffalo somewhat, but Minnesota's defense and home field keep the margin question close.
Analysis
Nov. 5: Minnesota confirmed Carson Wentz will start after Kyler Murray's hamstring injury. That helps Buffalo's chances, but not enough to erase the gap to a 5-point win.
The market already sits around Buffalo -3, while Minnesota's defense and Buffalo's offensive injuries argue against a blowout. A Buffalo win is plausible, but by 5+ points is less likely than a closer game.
Arguments
For
- Wentz starting lowers Minnesota's offensive ceiling.
- Buffalo has the league's top-scoring offense at 33.3 points per game.
Against
- The market has already moved only to Buffalo around -3.
- Minnesota's defense is allowing just 13.3 points per game.
Key drivers
- Current spread is about Buffalo -3, far below the needed margin.
- Minnesota's quarterback change helps Buffalo but does not guarantee a larger win.
Risk factors
- If Buffalo's questionable linemen play and protect the quarterback, margin could grow.
- If Minnesota's defense controls pace, Buffalo may win without covering 4.5.
Scenarios
Best case
If Buffalo's offense rolls and Minnesota's injury issues worsen (Nov. 9), Yes rises to about 58%.
Most likely
Most likely Buffalo wins a close game, with Yes around 43%.
Worst case
If Minnesota's defense keeps the game tight (Nov. 9), Yes falls to about 30%.
More from this day
- CryptoKalshiEnded
ETH price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
AI95%MKT66%Edge+29UndervaluedNo edge: the spot price sits far above the $2,200 cutoff, and recent ETF inflows support that. Whale sales and short-covering make the rally less clean, but not enough to move far from 95%.
- electionsPolymarketEnded
AZ-02 House Election Winner
AI75%MKT94%Edge-19HypedLeaning Yes: Crane still leads in the latest count, and the freshest numbers on November 5 show a 2,235-vote edge with most ballots already in. The race is uncalled, but the remaining vote does not obviously erase that lead.
- economyPolymarket25d
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
AI81%MKT65%Edge+16Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the market is already signaling about an 80% chance of a December hike, and the October 28 FOMC split 10-2 with two dissents for an immediate increase. That keeps the December 8-9 meeting as the most likely place for another move.