Heisman Trophy Winner
Leaning No: Smith is still alive, but the latest odds and recent production point slightly away from him. The market’s 39% seems a bit high with Ohio State’s quarterback situation now a major drag.
Analysis
Nov. 4 odds now show Mensah ahead of Smith, and Sayin is out for the regular season. That makes Smith’s path depend heavily on elite production over Ohio State’s remaining schedule.
Smith is still a top contender, but his last two outings were much quieter than his earlier stretch. With Miami and CJ Carr still in the race, he needs immediate big games to regain ground.
Arguments
For
- Smith remains a major national producer with prior Heisman momentum.
- Strong remaining opponents could create statement-game chances.
Against
- Recent odds already place Mensah ahead of him.
- Ohio State’s quarterback change reduces Smith’s production outlook.
Key drivers
- Quarterback instability at Ohio State
- Remaining schedule includes Oregon and Michigan
Risk factors
- Mensah strengthens his lead with more marquee wins
- Smith fails to post signature numbers in final games
Scenarios
Best case
If Smith dominates Oregon and Michigan (this month), Yes rises to about 45%.
Most likely
Most likely Smith stays a contender but not the favorite, with Yes around 35%.
Worst case
If Mensah keeps leading into December (this week), Yes falls to about 28%.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 35% | 39% |
| Darian Mensah | 34% | 31% |
| CJ Carr | 14% | 16% |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 10% | 10% |
| Sam Leavitt | 7% | 4% |
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