How high will BTC get in November?
Leaning No: BTC is still about 18.6% below the trigger after a sharp reversal and heavy liquidations. The market’s 13% Yes price is a bit high given the weak near-term setup.
Analysis
Nov. 5 BTC traded around $75,900 after a 5-6% drop and failed to hold above $80,000. Heavy liquidations and a Nasdaq-led risk selloff weakened the setup.
To resolve Yes, BTC needs an about 18.6% rally from current levels before month-end. That is possible, but the current price action and macro backdrop favor No more than the market price suggests.
Arguments
For
- BTC has shown it can move sharply on short squeezes.
- A weaker dollar and lower yields can support crypto demand.
Against
- BTC is still far from the required $90,000 level.
- Recent heavy liquidations and tech weakness point downward.
Key drivers
- Current price far below the $90,000 threshold
- Recent liquidation-driven weakness and failed rebound
Risk factors
- A fast short squeeze could quickly push BTC above $90,000
- Improving macro conditions could revive crypto risk appetite
Scenarios
Best case
If BTC breaks above $80,000 and momentum accelerates this week, Yes rises to about 20%.
Most likely
Most likely BTC remains below $90,000 through month-end, with Yes around 9%.
Worst case
If BTC loses $75,000 and macro selling deepens this week, Yes falls to about 4%.
More from this day
- CryptoKalshiEnded
ETH price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
AI95%MKT66%Edge+29UndervaluedNo edge: the spot price sits far above the $2,200 cutoff, and recent ETF inflows support that. Whale sales and short-covering make the rally less clean, but not enough to move far from 95%.
- electionsPolymarketEnded
AZ-02 House Election Winner
AI75%MKT94%Edge-19HypedLeaning Yes: Crane still leads in the latest count, and the freshest numbers on November 5 show a 2,235-vote edge with most ballots already in. The race is uncalled, but the remaining vote does not obviously erase that lead.
- economyPolymarket25d
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
AI81%MKT65%Edge+16Hidden GemLeaning Yes: the market is already signaling about an 80% chance of a December hike, and the October 28 FOMC split 10-2 with two dissents for an immediate increase. That keeps the December 8-9 meeting as the most likely place for another move.