US gas prices this week
Leaning No: the national average is still above $4.00, but the latest AAA drop and futures decline point lower before Nov. 9.
Analysis
AAA reported $4.10 on November 5, 2026, still above the $4 threshold. The latest reading is down 12 cents in a week, and futures have also fallen sharply.
The key question is whether that decline reaches the retail average quickly enough by Nov. 9. The balance of recent evidence points lower, but a crude rebound or supply shock could keep AAA above $4.
Arguments
For
- AAA still showed $4.10 on November 5, above the cutoff.
- Retail gasoline often adjusts slowly, which can keep averages elevated.
Against
- The average fell 12 cents in one week, leaving room to cross below $4.
- Analysts now expect sub-$4 pricing within about 7-10 days.
Key drivers
- Latest official AAA reading remains above the threshold.
- Recent weekly decline and futures drop point to further downside.
Risk factors
- Retail prices may lag wholesale declines before Nov. 9.
- Middle East supply shocks could reverse the recent drop.
Scenarios
Best case
If the recent decline accelerates before Nov. 9, Yes rises to about 62%.
Most likely
Most likely AAA stays near $4 but slightly below it, with Yes around 87%.
Worst case
If crude rebounds or supply disruption worsens this week, Yes falls to about 78%.
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