Gas prices in the US in Nov 2026?
Leaning No: the current AAA average is still above $4, but fresh oil-price declines and analyst commentary point to a drop below the cutoff before Nov. 30.
Analysis
November 5 brought a sharp drop in Brent and WTI, and GasBuddy said the national average could fall below $4 soon. That makes the current $4.14 AAA reading look temporary rather than decisive.
EIA's latest outlook still implies sub-$4 gasoline on average, even though it was compiled before the newest oil selloff. The main risk to No is a rebound in crude or renewed supply disruption before November 30.
Arguments
For
- AAA was already above $4 on November 3.
- Strong demand and inventory draws can slow the decline.
Against
- Oil prices fell sharply on November 5.
- Analysts expect the national average to fall below $4 soon.
Key drivers
- Pass-through from lower crude prices to retail gas
- Whether supply-risk premiums reappear before month-end
Risk factors
- Retail prices can lag crude declines by days or weeks
- Unexpected refinery outages or geopolitical shocks could reverse the move
Scenarios
Best case
If oil stays weak through mid-November, Yes rises to about 18%.
Most likely
Most likely AAA slips under $4 before Nov. 30, with Yes around 9%.
Worst case
If crude rebounds after further Middle East tension, Yes falls to about 4%.
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