Bank of Brazil Decision in January?
Leaning No: the latest November 4, 2026 market read points to a hold or, at most, a 25 bp cut in January, not a 50+ bp reduction. The key detail is that the Selic is still 13.75% and the cited January path is only 13.50%.
Analysis
November 4, 2026: the freshest market read points to COPOM staying cautious, with economists mostly expecting a hold in November and the January path centered near 13.50%, which implies only a 25 bp cut. That is well short of the 50+ bp threshold in this market.
Inflation forecasts have been drifting higher, with the Focus survey lifting the 2027 inflation median to 4.76% and Itaú expecting the Selic to stay at 13.75% through 2027. Unless the November COPOM statement turns sharply dovish, the January meeting looks more likely to deliver no change or a small cut than a half-point move.
Arguments
For
- Current economist and market expectations cluster around hold or 25 bp easing, not a 50+ bp cut.
- The Selic remains relatively high at 13.75%, but the recent path implies only gradual easing from here.
- Rising inflation forecasts make a half-point cut harder to justify at the January meeting.
Against
- COPOM could surprise dovishly after five prior 25 bp cuts, which would reopen the door to a bigger move.
- If December data show faster disinflation and softer activity, a 50 bp cut becomes more plausible.
Key drivers
- The latest cited January path is 13.50%, which lines up with a 25 bp cut rather than a 50+ bp cut.
- Inflation expectations moved up on November 3, 2026, making a larger easing step less likely.
Risk factors
- If COPOM signals a faster disinflation outlook in late November, January could reprice toward a larger cut.
- A sharp growth slowdown could push policymakers to ease more aggressively than current forecasts suggest.
Scenarios
Best case
If the November COPOM statement signals a sharp easing bias and December inflation data soften further, Yes rises to about 35%.
Most likely
Most likely COPOM either holds or cuts by 25 bp in January 2027, with Yes around 20%.
Worst case
If COPOM holds in November and January expectations stay near a 25 bp cut, Yes falls to about 12%.
More from this day
- economyPolymarket1y
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
AI32%MKT23%Edge+9UndervaluedLeaning No: Democrats look set to sweep both chambers, but the latest November 2 GDP and labor data point away from a recession by end-2027. That leaves the combined condition a bit less likely than the 34.9% market price implies.
- SportsKalshi4d
Cleveland vs New Orleans: Total Points
AI51%MKT45%Edge+6UndervaluedLeaning Yes: the market moved up two points, and several previews still lean over 43.5. That supports a small edge above the 48% Yes price, though both offenses have volatility.
- sportsPolymarket6mo
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
AI23%MKT19%Edge+4Priced InLeaning Yes: PSG’s 4-0 start with 20 goals and first place in the league phase makes them a stronger contender than the market price suggests. The biggest reason is the combination of perfect results and elite attacking form through November 3, 2026.