Las Vegas vs New York J: Spread

Leaning Yes: Modern Warfare 4 has the strongest launch-week momentum in the available data, including a first-place showing in the October 20–27 Steam sales roundup and a well-received October 23 PC launch. The main reason is that new Call of Duty releases often dominate Steam revenue in their launch window.

Leaning No: the clearest reference point is the $0.03 sale price on October 30, 2026, which implies exactly a $30M FDV, not above it. With no confirmed public launch price or stronger post-launch trading support, I lean slightly below the market.

Leaning Yes: Novak’s three-shot halfway lead and elite 61 make him the likeliest winner. The market is already high, but his position still deserves a modest bump.