Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Leaning Yes: the September hike is already locked in, and the October 27–28 meeting is heavily expected to pause, which keeps the Hike–Pause–Hike path alive. The main threat is that an October hike would force the market into Other, but that looks like a low-probability outcome.
Analysis
September 16, 2026 already produced a 25 bp hike, so the only real hurdle is the October 27–28 decision. Recent polling had 94 of 100 economists expecting a pause, and the next inflation and GDP releases land after that meeting, which limits surprise risk.
December still looks more likely to hike than not, with the same Reuters survey showing unanimous expectations for a year-end increase. That leaves the listed Hike–Pause–Hike sequence as the cleanest path, while the main downside is an October hike or a December cut, either of which would break the outcome.
Arguments
For
- The leading consensus now points to Hike–Pause–Hike, matching the exact sequence in the market question.
- The October hike probability is still small relative to a pause, so the middle leg looks stable.
- December expectations have firmed, with a year-end hike now the dominant view among surveyed economists.
Against
- The market resolves to Other if October is a hike, so one surprise meeting can still overturn the setup.
- If inflation or growth data between now and December soften materially, the Fed may skip the final hike.
Key drivers
- September 16 hike is confirmed, so the first leg of the sequence is already satisfied.
- October 27–28 is widely expected to be a pause, and the next major data arrive after that decision.
Risk factors
- An unexpected October hike would make the listed sequence impossible and send resolution to Other.
- A softer December outlook could lead the Fed to pause or cut, breaking the final hike leg.
Scenarios
Best case
If the October 27–28 FOMC pauses and the December 8–9 FOMC hikes, Yes rises to about 84%.
Most likely
Most likely the Fed pauses in October and hikes again in December, with Yes around 77%.
Worst case
If the October 27–28 FOMC hikes instead of pausing, Yes falls to about 15%.
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