Oscars 2027: Best Animated Short Film Nominations
Because Today is Saturday has real early traction, but the field is crowded and there is not yet enough evidence to treat it as a secure nominee. I would price its nomination chance somewhat below the current market, at 24%.
Analysis
Because Today is Saturday appears to be a legitimate contender, but not a dominant one. The current market price of 28% already reflects meaningful early support, and the broader context suggests the film is within the cluster of plausible nominees rather than outside the conversation. That said, the available information points to a race still being driven mostly by early festival attention, qualifying releases, and initial word of mouth, which are useful but not especially reliable signals this far out from the nomination announcement.
The most important reason to keep the probability modest is that the animated short field looks crowded and diffuse. Several other titles are drawing comparable or stronger attention, and the reporting indicates no major guild wins, no official Oscar shortlist confirmation, and no decisive awards-season validation yet. In this category, early enthusiasm can fade quickly if a film does not secure a shortlist spot or does not become a consensus favorite among Academy voters. A film priced in the low-to-mid 20s is consistent with a project that is respected but still one of many plausible names.
At the same time, the film should not be dismissed. The fact that it is mentioned among the leading contenders suggests it has some combination of subject matter, craftsmanship, or buzz that is resonating with observers. In a short-film category, the nomination set can be somewhat volatile, and films with strong artistic identity or festival momentum can break through even without an obvious precursor path. Still, until the shortlist, awards chatter, or another concrete signal improves its standing, the best read is that the market is slightly optimistic and the true nomination odds are closer to one in four than to one in three.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The film is already being treated as one of the field’s viable contenders, which is more than many entrants can claim.
- Arguments for Yes: Short-animation nominations often reward distinctive artistry and memorable concepts that can overcome a lack of heavyweight precursor wins.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The nomination field is crowded, and several other films appear to have equal or stronger early momentum.
- Arguments against Yes: There is not yet a concrete validation point such as shortlist inclusion, guild attention, or broad critical consensus.
Key drivers
- Early market support indicates the film is already inside the plausible nominee cluster.
- The category appears highly competitive, with several other shorts drawing similar attention.
- There is no confirmed shortlist placement or major precursor win yet to strengthen the case.
- Animated short nominations can reward artistic distinctiveness even without broad industry momentum.
Risk factors
- A strong competitor could capture the available attention and push this film off the final slate.
- If the film misses the December shortlist, its nomination chances would likely fall sharply.
- The current price may be inflated by early buzz rather than durable Academy support.
- With limited public signals so far, small changes in awards-season sentiment could move the odds quickly.
Scenarios
Best case
The film lands on the Academy shortlist, sustains festival and critical momentum, and becomes one of the small set of shorts that voters repeatedly see and remember, making nomination very plausible.
Most likely
The film remains a respectable but not leading contender, stays in the conversation through the pre-nomination phase, and ultimately faces a close but unfavorable race against a few stronger shorts.
Worst case
The film loses momentum as the season develops, fails to appear on the shortlist, and is overtaken by better-positioned competitors with clearer industry support.
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