"Other Mommy" 2nd Weekend Box Office
The most likely outcome is that Other Mommy falls below $10 million in its second weekend. The opening was strong, but the very poor audience reception makes a steep drop more probable than a hold above the threshold.
Analysis
Other Mommy opened to $27.5 million domestically, which is a solid launch for a horror title and gives it a large enough base that the second weekend only needs to retain a bit more than a third of its opening to stay above $10 million. That sounds plausible on paper, but the film’s audience signals are very weak. A D+ CinemaScore is a major warning sign for legs, especially for a genre film that depends on quick word of mouth and repeat attendance from casual viewers. When a horror or thriller title opens high but disappoints audiences, the second weekend often becomes the first major test of how front-loaded the opening really was.
The comparison point in the recent discussion is especially important. A similar horror title with weak reception dropped 64.5% in its second weekend, and analysts already expect Other Mommy to do worse than that because its audience score is even weaker. If the film falls by around 65%, the second weekend lands just under $10 million, and at a 70% decline it lands around $8.25 million. That creates a fairly narrow path to staying above the line: the movie would need an unusually mild drop relative to the reception it received, or a stronger-than-expected Sunday hold and weekday-based spillover into the weekend.
The counterargument is that the opening was above expectations and the film has some seasonal support from pre-Halloween demand, which can help horror films maintain better-than-expected interest for a time. A first-place opening also suggests there is some broad awareness and genre appeal. Still, those positives are not strong enough to offset the usual relationship between very poor audience reception and second-weekend erosion. The market price implies some uncertainty, but the balance of evidence still leans toward a second weekend under $10 million, with the main question being whether the drop is merely very steep or exceptionally steep.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The D+ CinemaScore strongly suggests poor word of mouth and a steep second-weekend collapse.
- Arguments for Yes: A decline in the mid-60% range already puts the film at or just below the $10 million cutoff.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The film opened well above expectations, which can indicate broader demand and a somewhat sturdier base than pessimists assume.
- Arguments against Yes: Seasonal horror demand and a first-place opening could cushion the drop enough to keep it just above $10 million.
Key drivers
- The D+ CinemaScore signals very poor audience satisfaction and a high likelihood of heavy second-weekend erosion.
- The $27.5 million opening gives the film a large base, but it still needs an unusually strong hold to stay above $10 million.
- Horror titles often drop sharply after disappointing audiences, especially when the opening is driven by first-weekend demand.
- Pre-Halloween seasonal interest may soften the decline somewhat, but likely not enough to overcome the weak word of mouth.
Risk factors
- A better-than-expected Friday-to-Saturday hold could keep the weekend above $10 million if interest proves less front-loaded than expected.
- If casual horror audiences respond more positively than the CinemaScore suggests, the drop could be milder than the bearish comparisons imply.
Scenarios
Best case
The film stabilizes better than expected, dropping only in the high-50% range and landing comfortably above $10 million on strong genre interest and decent weekend holdovers.
Most likely
The movie experiences a severe second-weekend drop driven by weak audience reception, landing just under $10 million and more likely in the low-to-mid $9 million range or slightly below.
Worst case
Word of mouth collapses quickly, the film falls 70% or more, and the second weekend ends in the $8 million to $9 million range.
More from this day
- PoliticsKalshiEnded
Katie Zacharia out as White House Press Secretary?
AI5%MKT95%Edge-90HypedA very short-tenure exit is possible, but there is still no concrete evidence of an imminent removal or replacement. My independent estimate is slightly below the market at 5%.
- techPolymarket7d
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
AI20%MKT85%Edge-65HypedI think a qualifying Fable 5.2+ release by October 31 is possible but still unlikely. The lack of any official announcement with only two weeks left keeps the odds well below the market’s current yes price.
- SportsKalshiEnded
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland: Total Runs
AI100%MKT50%Edge+50Hidden GemThis event has already resolved to Yes, so the correct outcome is certain in hindsight. The market price at 50/50 is stale and no longer informative.