Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Nominations

The current setup strongly favors a nomination. The film is already being discussed as a major awards player, and Martin McDonagh is one of the more reliably recognized writer-directors in recent Oscar history. His past films have translated into broad Academy support, and that kind of auteur credibility matters a lot in Best Original Screenplay, where voters often reward distinctive voice, tonal control, and sharp dialogue. A film that is already tracking well in Best Picture conversations usually has a cleaner path into screenplay nominations than a movie that is only visible in a single category.

The material itself also fits the category well. A dark comedy centered on CIA assassins against a politically charged historical backdrop gives voters something that can be seen as both original and serious enough for Academy attention. This is exactly the kind of premise that can stand out in a screenplay field that often rewards ambition, authorial confidence, and a clear tonal identity. Broad supporting buzz across acting and major-category races reinforces that the film is not just a niche critical favorite, but something the industry is paying attention to in a holistic way.

At the same time, the market price near 91.5 percent may be a little aggressive relative to the evidence currently available. The biggest issue is that there is still no screenplay-specific precursor consensus yet, such as major critics-group wins, guild support, or a definitive top-tier ranking within the screenplay race. That does not make the nomination unlikely, but it does leave room for surprises if another original screenplay gains late momentum, if the film underperforms relative to expectations, or if voters split around competing prestige titles. Even so, the film’s combination of pedigree, concept, and overall awards positioning makes a nomination more likely than not by a wide margin.