Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

The case for 2026 is strong because the year is already running at an exceptionally hot pace, and the year-to-date signal is not just warm but historically elite. January through September is already tracking as one of the warmest stretches ever observed, and the latest monthly readings have continued to come in near the top of the historical distribution. That means 2026 does not need an extraordinary finish to stay in contention; it only needs the remaining months to preserve the current gap or close it against 2024. The underlying long-term warming trend also helps, because each year now starts from a higher baseline than the last decade’s average, making a record plausible even without a once-in-a-generation anomaly.

The main argument against a 2026 record is the timing of the El Niño contribution. El Niño often boosts global temperatures with a lag, and the strongest global signal frequently appears after the event has already matured. That creates a real chance that late-2026 warmth is not the peak effect, but rather the setup for 2027 to show even more dramatic warmth. NOAA’s more cautious outlook, which favors second place, reflects this timing risk and the fact that 2024 remains a very high hurdle. If 2026 finishes just behind 2024, that would still be fully consistent with the current data and with the seasonal mechanics of El Niño.

Market sentiment and outside expert estimates point in different directions, which is why the probability should not be pushed too high. Berkeley Earth’s very bullish estimate suggests a meaningful chance that 2026 does break the record, but other assessments are more conservative and explicitly give second place as the likelier outcome. The market price near two-thirds for Yes implies enthusiasm for a record, yet the balance of evidence says the distribution is still wide enough that second place remains the single most likely alternative. In other words, 2026 is genuinely in the hunt, but the record is not close to locked in, and the late-year temperature behavior will matter a great deal.