Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
The evidence strongly points to Yes because GPT-6.1 Sol is reported to have already appeared and is cited at 52.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, comfortably above the 40% cutoff. The main uncertainty is not the score itself but whether the market’s source and timing requirements are satisfied exactly at settlement.
Analysis
The central fact in this market is that the next qualifying GPT Sol model appears to have already debuted, and the reported Humanity’s Last Exam score attached to GPT-6.1 Sol is 52.9%. If that result is the one displayed on the official site at the relevant settlement time, the Yes condition is clearly met because it exceeds the 40% threshold by a meaningful margin. This is not a marginal case near the cutoff; the reported figure sits well above it, which makes a positive resolution the default expectation.
The main argument against treating this as near-certain is that the settlement depends on a very specific official source, on a qualifying model definition, and on what was actually displayed at the designated time. There is some ambiguity in the context around whether the cited benchmark figure is exactly the official Humanity’s Last Exam display, whether it was first added in the required way, and whether the model listing remained present at the required timestamp. Those are real settlement frictions, but they affect the evidentiary chain more than the underlying performance level, and nothing in the provided context suggests the score itself is below 40%.
Market pricing at 78.25% for Yes indicates traders already lean strongly in that direction, but the available news summary is even more supportive than the market implies. The combination of a reported direct score above threshold, independent mentions of the model’s strong overall performance, and no conflicting evidence that places GPT-6.1 Sol below 40% makes the probability of Yes substantially higher than the current price. The remaining risk is administrative or source-validation failure rather than benchmark underperformance.
A smaller but relevant consideration is that benchmark comparisons can vary depending on tool access, evaluation setup, and how the site presents the result card. However, the market only cares about the displayed HLE Accuracy on the official site, not broader capability claims or alternative benchmark runs. Since the cited figure is already above the threshold and there is no competing figure in the provided context suggesting a lower official display, the rational assessment is that Yes is the overwhelmingly more likely outcome.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The strongest reported score for GPT-6.1 Sol is 52.9%, which exceeds the required 40% by a wide enough margin to make a positive result likely.
- Arguments for Yes: Independent context consistently describes GPT-6.1 Sol as a strong benchmark performer, and nothing in the summary suggests an official score below the threshold.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The market resolves only from the official Humanity’s Last Exam site, so any mismatch in source formatting, timing, or model qualification could create a settlement problem.
- Arguments against Yes: Benchmark results can differ by evaluation setup, so a cited score in secondary coverage may not perfectly match the exact displayed score used for resolution.
Key drivers
- GPT-6.1 Sol is reported to have a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 52.9%, which is above the 40% threshold.
- The reported score is comfortably above the cutoff, leaving a meaningful margin for settlement.
Risk factors
- The official site display and timing requirements may not match the reported benchmark summary exactly.
- A source or qualification dispute could arise if the model listing, version label, or appearance date is interpreted narrowly.
Scenarios
Best case
GPT-6.1 Sol is clearly listed on the official site with a displayed HLE Accuracy at or above 52.9%, and the market resolves cleanly to Yes without any source dispute.
Most likely
GPT-6.1 Sol remains the qualifying next GPT Sol model, the official site displays an HLE Accuracy above 40%, and the market resolves to Yes with little controversy.
Worst case
The model’s reported score cannot be verified on the official site at the required time, or the listing fails a technical qualification rule, causing the market to resolve No despite the external reports.
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