Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 13, 2026?

The core question is not whether Trump’s approval is weak overall, because the recent polling already makes that clear; the real issue is which exact one-tenth rounding point RealClearPolitics lands on for Oct. 13. Recent reported readings have clustered in the high 30s, but the sequence from 38.5 down to 37.7 suggests a modest downward drift rather than a stable plateau, which makes the exact print sensitive to the most recent poll mix and update timing. In that kind of environment, 38.1 is certainly plausible, but so are 38.0, 38.2, and 37.9, and the distribution should be fairly spread across those adjacent values.

Because RCP updates are driven by a moving average of new surveys, the exact daily outcome often depends on whether one newer poll lands just before or after the cutoff and on how much weight that poll carries. That creates a lot of probability mass near the current level, but it also means the most likely exact number is not just the center of the recent range; it is whichever value the average naturally rounds or records after the latest update. Given the recent slide and the fact that the latest available readings already touched 37.7, I would slightly favor 38.0 and 38.1 over 38.2 and 38.3, with 38.1 still the single best guess.

The market at 46% for 38.1 looks somewhat too high for an exact-number event. It appears to be anchoring on the idea that the average is hovering near 38.1, but exact-value markets should price in the substantial probability that the final figure lands one or two tenths away, especially when the underlying series is noisy and drifting. My estimate is therefore lower than the market on 38.1 itself, while giving more weight to the neighboring outcomes than the current pricing suggests.