Where will it rain on Oct 13, 2026?
I estimate a modestly above-even chance of measurable rain in Phoenix, but not by much. The setup supports scattered showers, while the contract’s trace-rain rule and neighborhood-level variability keep the Yes side from being a strong favorite.
Analysis
The weather setup favors at least some measurable precipitation somewhere in the Phoenix metro on Oct. 13. Moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Rachel combined with a trough is a credible rain-producing pattern for central Arizona, and the reported forecast probabilities in the 30–60% range are consistent with a real chance of showers reaching the official Phoenix station rather than just nearby foothills. Because the market resolves on The Weather Company’s daily precipitation value and trace amounts do not count, the key question is not whether rain is around the region, but whether enough falls at the reference location to register above zero. That makes this closer to a coin flip than a straightforward rain day, even with supportive synoptic conditions.
Arguments for Yes are that the forecast system was explicitly calling for scattered showers and storms to persist into Tuesday, with some Phoenix-area forecasts around 50–55% during the day. In a setup like this, brief convective cells can easily produce measurable rain at one station even if most of the metro stays dry, and the official Phoenix location does not need heavy rainfall to resolve Yes. The strongest support for Yes is that the environment appears wet enough that measurable precipitation is genuinely plausible rather than a long shot.
Arguments against Yes are that the rain was expected to be spotty and to diminish through the day from west to east, which lowers the odds that the official Phoenix site catches a non-trace event. The forecasts also emphasized that the best odds and higher totals were favored in foothills and northern/eastern Maricopa County, implying the core valley could miss out. That spatial mismatch is important for this contract, because even a decent regional rain chance can still translate into a sub-50% probability of a measurable reading at the specific Phoenix station.
Compared with the market price of 43% Yes, I think the market is a little low, but not dramatically so. The contract seems to underweight the fact that the forecast discussion was genuinely supportive of scattered showers and that a small amount of measurable precipitation is enough to win. Still, the trace-rain exclusion and the localized nature of the event keep this from being more than a slight edge to Yes.
Arguments
For
- Forecasts supported scattered showers and storms over the Phoenix area on Oct. 13.
- Some daytime Phoenix-area forecasts showed probabilities in the low-to-mid 50s, which is supportive of a measurable reading.
Against
- The rain was expected to be highly localized, so the official station could easily miss the showers.
- Trace precipitation does not count, which makes a marginal shower enough to lose the contract.
Key drivers
- Moisture from former Tropical Cyclone Rachel and the accompanying trough created a real but scattered rain threat.
- The contract resolves on measurable precipitation at the official Phoenix reading, so nearby showers are not enough if the station stays dry.
Risk factors
- Rain was expected to be spotty and to weaken through the day, reducing the chance of a direct hit at the official station.
- The best precipitation odds were favored for foothills and northern/eastern Maricopa County rather than the core Phoenix location.
Scenarios
Best case
Showers or a storm cell pass directly over the official Phoenix station and produce measurable rain, even if totals are light.
Most likely
Phoenix sees nearby scattered showers with mixed coverage, and the official station ends up either dry or with only a marginal amount of measurable rain, making this a close but slightly unfavorable Yes outcome.
Worst case
Rain falls around the Valley but misses the official station or only produces trace amounts, so the contract resolves No.
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