Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

The most important fact is that a Moonshot Kimi model appears to have already exceeded the threshold. Multiple recent comparisons reportedly place Kimi K3 at 46.9% on Humanity’s Last Exam, which is directly above the market line of 45%. If that result is accepted by the resolution source or an official equivalent, the market has effectively already been decided in favor of Yes, since the question asks whether the highest Kimi score in 2026 will be 45% or higher rather than whether a future release will achieve it later.

The main reason not to assign an even higher probability is the possibility of methodology ambiguity. The market specifies the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard and emphasizes HLE Accuracy as the relevant metric, so the result must correspond to the correct benchmark variant and a qualifying Moonshot Kimi model entry. Recent context suggests there are tool-use distinctions and newer benchmark variants such as HLE-Diamond, and some published comparisons may not map cleanly onto the exact resolution criteria. That said, the reported 46.9% figure is not a marginal or speculative claim; it is comfortably above the threshold, and the presence of multiple independent comparison reports makes it less likely to be a one-off misread.

Market pricing is materially lower than the reported headline result, which suggests traders may be discounting the resolution risk rather than the raw score itself. That makes sense because markets on benchmark questions often fear versioning, leaderboard naming, or source-access issues more than they fear the underlying model performance. Even so, unless the cited score is later shown to belong to the wrong task configuration or an unofficial presentation that cannot be used for resolution, the distribution of outcomes still heavily skews toward Yes. In practical terms, this is closer to a documentation-and-definition question than a pure forecasting question, and the available evidence leans strongly toward a qualifying score already existing.

Arguments for Yes are straightforward: Kimi K3 is widely described as a frontier Moonshot model, and the stated 46.9% HLE result already clears the target with a modest buffer. Arguments against Yes are mostly procedural: the market could reject a non-qualifying leaderboard variant, a tool-using run, or a comparison table that is not the official resolution source. Those risks are real, but they do not outweigh the fact that the benchmark result appears to exist above threshold already, which is the most important driver in this market.