Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

As of now, none of the seven men has been publicly charged, so the market still sits at a pre-charge stage rather than a near-certainty. The main reason this has become more live is that the case is no longer sitting in a closed posture: the district attorney reopened the investigation, and the state has brought in the attorney general as special prosecutor. That creates a real pathway to a grand jury presentation and possible indictment, which is exactly the kind of procedural development that can move a market like this from remote to plausible.

Still, the legal standard and the timeline matter a lot. A civil complaint and university disciplinary findings are not enough on their own to produce criminal felony sex charges, and the earlier decision not to prosecute suggests the evidence issue may be difficult. Prosecutors previously indicated the available account did not clearly establish lack of consent under New York law, which hints that the case may depend on corroboration, witness consistency, or new evidence that was not strong enough before. If the reopened review does not uncover materially stronger proof, the matter may again stall without charges.

The market price implies roughly a 29% chance of Yes, and that seems a bit low given the active special-prosecutor process and the seriousness of the allegations, but not dramatically low. With more than three months left, there is enough time for an indictment, especially if prosecutors move quickly after the grand jury review. However, grand jury action is still uncertain, and the burden remains on investigators to convert allegations and university findings into admissible criminal evidence. On balance, I would slightly prefer Yes over the current market-implied baseline only in the sense that the reopened path is real, but I still think No remains somewhat more likely because the case has already once failed to produce charges and the window is limited.