Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 9, 2026?
I estimate Trump’s RCP approval average has a meaningful but not overwhelming chance of ending below 38.1 on Oct. 9, with the most likely outcome being a narrow dip through the threshold rather than a decisive break lower. My independent probability is lower than the market’s, because the average is close enough to 38.1 that small polling updates or rounding effects can easily leave it just above the line.
Analysis
The core question is whether RCP’s rolling average, already reported around 38.3% to 38.5% in the days just before the close, can slip another two-tenths of a point or more by Oct. 9. The broader approval environment is clearly weak, with other aggregators and trackers sitting lower than RCP and multiple reports describing Trump’s approval as near record lows. That background makes a sub-38.1 reading plausible, especially if a recent low poll replaces a higher one in the average or if another soft poll lands before the cutoff.
At the same time, this is a very tight threshold and RCP averages tend to move in small increments rather than in dramatic steps. A reading at 38.3% on Oct. 8 is not the same as being safely below 38.1%; it leaves the event dependent on whether the next update includes fresh polling that nudges the average down enough. Because RCP is a weighted/rolling construct, modest lag and rounding can keep the printed average pinned just above the line even when the underlying polling trend is negative.
The market appears to be pricing the negative polling environment as if it almost guarantees a break below 38.1. I think that is a bit aggressive. The correct framing is that the yes case is favored, but not by a huge margin, because the threshold is only 0.2 points below the most recent reported value and averages often cluster around nearby decimals. In other words, the market likely overstates how likely it is that the published RCP figure will cross this exact cutoff by the deadline.
Arguments
For
- Trump’s approval trend is broadly weak, and several alternative trackers are already below RCP, which supports further downward drift.
- The latest reported RCP numbers were near 38.3%, so even a modest update could push the average under 38.1.
Against
- The threshold is very tight, so the average may simply not move enough by the deadline.
- RCP’s methodology and update timing can delay or dampen a crossing even when the underlying trend is negative.
Key drivers
- Recent reported RCP readings are already very close to the 38.1 threshold, so only a small downward move is needed.
- Broader polling data are weaker than RCP, which increases the chance that late updates push the average lower.
Risk factors
- RCP averages can remain sticky near a threshold if incoming polls are sparse or balanced.
- A single slightly stronger poll or a timing cutoff issue could leave the published average at 38.1 or above.
Scenarios
Best case
A fresh low-approval poll enters the average before the cutoff and pulls RCP clearly below 38.1, making the yes outcome look validated by a continuing slump.
Most likely
The average finishes extremely close to the cutoff, with a slight bias toward below 38.1 but enough uncertainty that the exact print remains vulnerable to timing and rounding.
Worst case
No new weak poll lands in time, or a mild poll offsets the recent decline, leaving the published average at 38.1, 38.2, or 38.3 instead of below the threshold.
Outcomes
| Outcome | AI | MKT |
|---|---|---|
| Below 38.1% | 62% | 83% |
| 38.1% | 14% | 6% |
| 38.2% | 11% | 3% |
| 38.3% | 8% | 2% |
| 38.4% | 5% | 2% |
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