Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...?

The biggest change is that the legal barrier has largely been removed. Reports indicate that the Constitutional Court has supported applying the amnesty law to Puigdemont’s embezzlement case and that the arrest warrant has been lifted, which means the core reason he stayed away from Spain has weakened substantially. For a market that only requires him to physically enter Spanish territory before the end of 2026, this is a major bullish development because it converts the event from a high-risk legal impossibility into a discretionary political and personal decision.

At the same time, the key uncertainty is no longer can he return, but will he choose to return in time. The reporting says he has not announced a return date, and his lawyer has suggested waiting until the case is formally archived rather than rushing back. That leaves room for delay if Puigdemont or his team believes there is still some residual legal exposure, reputational risk, or tactical advantage in holding back until the situation is fully settled. Even with the main warrant removed, political figures in his position often prefer certainty over symbolism, especially when the costs of a premature return could still be significant.

Market pricing at 88.5% implies that traders think the combination of legal clearance, political incentive, and the limited remaining time strongly favors a return before year-end. I think that is directionally right, but perhaps a little too confident. The most likely path is that he returns at some point in 2026, possibly tied to a political moment or procedural milestone, but the remaining possibility of a last-minute postponement is still meaningful. Because there are only about three months left in the year, any further delay starts to matter a lot, yet the recent legal developments make a non-return by December 31 look less likely than a return.